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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Water Resources Research >Analysis of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Precipitation Changes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River
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Analysis of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Precipitation Changes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

机译:长江源区降水变化的时空分布分析

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摘要

Precipitation plays an important role in exerting the water conservation function and maintaining the ecology in the source region of the Yangtze River. Based on the two different kinds of dataset including gauged point data and reanalysis distribute data in 1966~2017, the spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation changes was analyzed by the linear regression, moving average, Mann-Kendall test, box plot method, and correlation test, etc. The results show that the annual precipitation in the source area presented a steady and slow increasing tendency in terms of time distribution; furthermore, at the 0.05 test level, the tendency became significant in 2009 which was 2.3 times the average annual increase. The trend of uneven distribution of precipitation during the year had increased that after the mutation point in 2002, the probabilities of the month with extreme precipitation increased to triple, and the proportion from June to September was increased by 11%. In terms of spatial distribution, the precipitation in the source area was small, and the changing trend was basically consistent with the average surface precipitation; while the precipitation of downstream outlet was abundant, meanwhile, the same features were expressed in the frequency of extreme precipitation months, and each site shows an unstable trend of change. Under the global climate change, the precipitation in the source region of the Yangtze river has great heterogeneity in the spatial and temporal distribution, and the increase of precipitation was mainly concentrated in the flood season of the downstream export area, which may make the water ecology in the source area face more adverse environment.
机译:降水在施加水系功能和维持长江源区的生态方面发挥着重要作用。基于两种不同的数据集,包括测量点数据和再分析分布数据,1966年〜2017,通过线性回归,移动平均,曼恩 - 肯德尔测试,箱图方法和相关试验分析了降水变化的时空分布等等结果表明,在时间分布方面,源区的年降水量呈现出稳定和缓慢的趋势;此外,在0.05测试水平,2009年的趋势变得显着,年均增加了2.3倍。今年降水量不均匀分布的趋势增加,在2002年的突变点之后,月份降水量的概率增加到三倍,6月至9月的比例增加了11%。在空间分布方面,源区的沉淀小,变化的趋势基本上与平均表面沉淀一致;同时,下游出口的沉淀丰富,同时在极端降水量的频率下表达相同的特征,并且每个网站都显示出不稳定的变化趋势。在全球气候变化下,长江源区的降水在空间和时间分布方面具有很大的异质性,降水量的增加主要集中在下游出口区域的汛期,这可能会使水生态学在源区面临更不利的环境。

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