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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Water Resources Research >Flood Risk Assessment of Hun-Tai Area Due to Dike Break Based on HEC-RAS
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Flood Risk Assessment of Hun-Tai Area Due to Dike Break Based on HEC-RAS

机译:基于HEC-RA的堤防休息,浑泰面积的洪水风险评估

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Floods are considered as one of the most frequent natural disasters and flood risk assessment is an important support for flood prevention and disaster reduction. This study establishes a methodological framework for evaluating the flood risk of Hun-Tai flood protection zone due to the typical floods. Firstly, by building a two-dimensional numerical model of flooding, the spatial and temporal evolution process of dike-break flood in the study area was simulated and analyzed. Secondly, taking grids as research objects and considering the actual situation, a risk evaluation index system was established, and the subjective weights of the indices calculated by the AHP and the objective weights of the indices calculated by the entropy weight method were combined through the level difference maximization method (LDMM). Finally, the K-Means clustering algorithm was used to perform a cluster analysis on the comprehensive scores of the evaluation objects, and the risk situation of a typical dike-breaking flooding was obtained. The results of the study show that, the LDMM can reasonably evaluate the flood risk, and can avoid the “multiplication effect” that may occur in the multiplicative synthesis method; when a 100-year flow process occurs at the combination of Chituozi and Majiapuzi dike-break, the moderate and higher flood risk areas cover 89.64% of total area.
机译:洪水被认为是最常见的自然灾害和洪水风险评估之一是对防洪和减灾的重要支持。本研究建立了一种评估由于典型洪水洪水保护区的洪水风险的方法论框架。首先,通过建立一种二维的洪水模型,模拟并分析了研究区堤防洪水的空间和时间演化过程。其次,将网格作为研究对象,建立了风险评估指标体系,并通过熵权法计算的AHP计算的指数的主观权重和通过熵权法计算的索引的客观权重差异最大化方法(LDMM)。最后,K-Means聚类算法用于对评估对象的综合分数进行集群分析,并获得典型的堤防洪水的风险状况。研究结果表明,LDMM可以合理地评估洪水风险,并且可以避免在乘法合成方法中可能发生的“乘法效果”;当含量为100年的流程发生时,中等和更高的洪水风险地区占总面积的89.64%。

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