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Evaluation of the Accuracy of Machine Learning Predictions of the Czech Republic’s Exports to the China

机译:评价捷克共和国出口到中国的机器学习预测的准确性

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The objective of this contribution is to predict the development of the Czech Republic’s (CR) exports to the PRC (People’s Republic of China) using ANN (artificial neural networks). To meet the objective, two research questions are formulated. The questions focus on whether growth in the CR’s exports to the PRC can be expected and whether MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptron) networks are applicable for predicting the future development of the CR’s exports to the PRC. On the basis of previously obtained historical data, ANN with the best explanatory power are generated. For the purpose specified, three experiments are carried out, the results of which are described in detail. For the first, second and third experiments, ANN for predicting the development of exports are generated on the basis of a time series with a 1-month, 5-month and 10-month time delay, respectively. The generated ANN are the MLP and regression time series neural networks. The MLP turn out to be the most efficient in predicting the future development of the CR’s exports to the PRC. They are also able to predict possible extremes. It is also determined that the USA–China trade war has significantly affected the CR’s exports to the PRC.
机译:本贡献的目标是使用ANN(人工神经网络)预测捷克共和国(CR)出口到中国(中华人民共和国)的发展。为满足目标,制定了两项研究问题。这些问题专注于CR对中国的出口增长,以及MLP(多层Perceptron)网络是否适用于预测CR对中国的未来发展的发展。在先前获得的历史数据的基础上,产生了具有最佳解释力的ANN。出于指定的目的,进行了三个实验,其结果详细描述。对于第一个,第二和第三实验,为了预测出口发展的ANN是在一个时间序列的基础上产生,分别为1个月,5个月和10个月的时间延迟。生成的ANN是MLP和回归时间序列神经网络。 MLP成为最有效的是预测CR对中国的未来发展。它们也能够预测可能的极端。它还确定美国 - 中国贸易战将CR对中国的出口显着影响。

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