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Sanctions as a Catalyst for Russia’s and China’s Balance of Trade: Business Opportunity

机译:制裁作为俄罗斯和中国贸易平衡的催化剂:商业机会

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Economic sanctions are among the most powerful instruments of international policy. However, this study, using the example of the so-called anti-Russian sanctions, shows that in the global economy, countries are rapidly using other alternatives, and sanctions in the case analyzed act as a catalyst for balance of trade between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. The study is based on a highly topical sophisticated model of neural networks, which provides clear results confirming the unintended positive effect. The time series and aggregated data became inputs into multilayer perceptron networks, while the methodology used enabled eliminating of both too large averaging and extreme fluctuations of the equalized time series. Out of 10,000 networks created for each variable and each time lag, five showing the best characteristics given by correlation coefficients and absolute residual sums were retained. Thus, the created equalized time series were able to describe the basic trend of the actual development of export and import, while also capturing their local extremes. The interpolation of the two time series shows that the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation in 2014 have clearly strengthened its balance of trade with the People’s Republic of China. The results of the study also predict further growth in the balance of trade between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, although this development may be delayed by current events.
机译:经济制裁是国际政策最强大的工具之一。然而,本研究,使用所谓的反俄罗斯制裁的例子,表明,在全球经济中,各国正在利用其他替代方案,并在案件中的制裁作为俄罗斯联邦之间贸易平衡的催化剂和中华人民共和国。该研究基于神经网络的高局部复杂模型,提供了明确的结果,证实了意外的积极效果。时间序列和聚合数据变为多层Perceptron网络的输入,而使用方法使能消除过于大的平均和均衡时间序列的极端波动。为每个变量创建的10,000个网络,每次滞后,保留了五个显示相关系数和绝对残差的最佳特性。因此,所创建的均衡时间序列能够描述出口和进口实际发展的基本趋势,同时也捕获了他们的本地极端。两次序列的插值表明,2014年俄罗斯联邦施加的制裁明显加强了与中华人民共和国贸易的平衡。该研究的结果还预测俄罗斯联邦与中华人民共和国之间贸易平衡的进一步增长,尽管当前事件可能会延迟这一发展。

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