This study examined the accuracy of the various forecasting methods of the 2016 US Presidential Elections. The findings revealed a high accuracy in predicting the popular vote. However, this is most suitable in an electoral system which is not divided into constituencies. Instead, due to the Electoral College method used in the US elections, forecasting should focus on predicting the winner in every state separately. Nevertheless, miss-predicted results in only a few states led to false forecasting of the elected president in 2016. The current methods proved less accurate in predicting the vote in states that are less urbanized and with less diverse society regarding race, ethnicity, and religion. The most challenging was predicting the vote of people who are White, Protestant Christians, and highly religious. In order to improve pre-election polls, this study suggests a few changes to the current methods, mainly to adopt the Cleavage Sampling method that can better predict the expected turnout of specific social groups, thus leading to higher accuracy of pre-election polling.
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机译：本研究审查了2016年美国总统选举的各种预测方法的准确性。调查结果揭示了预测流行投票的高精度。然而，这是最适合在不分为选区的选举系统中。相反，由于美国选举中使用的选举大学方法，预测应专注于分别预测每个国家的获胜者。 Nevertheless, miss-predicted results in only a few states led to false forecasting of the elected president in 2016. The current methods proved less accurate in predicting the vote in states that are less urbanized and with less diverse society regarding race, ethnicity, and religion 。最具挑战性的是预测白人，新教徒基督徒和高度宗教的人的投票。为了改善选举前民意调查，本研究表明目前方法的一些变化，主要是采用裂解抽样方法，可以更好地预测特定社会群体的预期投票，从而提高选举前调查的准确性。
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