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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems >Ocean‐Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change
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Ocean‐Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change

机译:仅海洋FAFMIP:了解海洋热含量和动态海平面的区域模式

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摘要

There is large uncertainty in the future regional sea level change under anthropogenic climate change. Our study presents and uses a novel design of ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments to investigate the ocean's response to surface buoyancy and momentum flux perturbations without atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks (e.g., without surface restoring or bulk formulae), as part of the Flux‐Anomaly‐Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP). In an ensemble of OGCMs forced with identical surface flux perturbations, simulated dynamic sea level (DSL) and ocean heat content (OHC) change demonstrate considerable disagreement. In the North Atlantic, the disagreement in DSL and OHC change between models is mainly due to differences in the residual (resolved and eddy) circulation change, with a large spread in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakening (20–50%). In the western North Pacific, OHC change is similar among the OGCM ensemble, but the contributing physical processes differ. For the Southern Ocean, isopycnal and diapycnal mixing change dominate the spread in OHC change. In addition, a component of the atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks are quantified by comparing coupled, atmosphere‐ocean GCM (AOGCM) and OGCM FAFMIP experiments with consistent ocean models. We find that there is 10% more AMOC weakening in AOGCMs relative to OGCMs, since the extratropical North Atlantic SST cooling due to heat redistribution amplifies the surface heat flux perturbation. This component of the atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks enhances the pattern of North Atlantic OHC and DSL change, with relatively stronger increases and decreases in the tropics and extratropics, respectively. Plain Language Summary A rise in sea level, as a result of climate change due to human activity, is a major threat to coastal communities and environments. Sea level rise is partially caused by a warming and expansion of the world's oceans, due to a net heat input from the atmosphere to the ocean. Changes in rainfall patterns and surface winds also affect the sea level, but net heat input changes are the most important factor. State‐of‐the‐art computer models disagree on future projections of local sea level rise. It has been suggested that this disagreement comes from differences in the amount of net heat input, and also the different assumptions going into the computer models. We find a large local sea level rise disagreement in the North Atlantic from giving several different computer models the same net heat input change. These differences are linked to uncertainty in how much Atlantic currents will slow in response to a given amount of warming. We also find that computer models that include an interactive ocean and atmosphere slow the Atlantic currents by more than computer models with an interactive ocean but fixed atmosphere. This finding builds our knowledge of the processes that determine the ocean's role in climate change.
机译:在人为气候变化下未来区域海平面变化存在巨大的不确定性。我们的研究提出并使用了新颖的海洋通用循环模型(OGCM)实验设计,调查海洋对表面浮力和动量助殖扰动而没有大气 - 海洋反馈(例如,没有表面恢复或散装公式),作为通量的一部分 - 强制型号的模型互通项目(FAFMIP)。在EAGCMS的集合中强制出具有相同的表面通量扰动,模拟动态海平面(DSL)和海洋热量(OHC)变化表现出相当大的分歧。在北大西洋中,模型之间的DSL和OHC变化的分歧主要是由于剩余(已解决和涡流)循环变化的差异,在大西洋经济倾覆循环(AMOC)减弱(20-50%) 。在西北太平洋西部,OHC的变化在OGCM合奏中类似,但有贡献的物理过程不同。对于南海,等离子体和十几个混合变化主导了OHC变化的差异。此外,通过将耦合,大气海洋GCM(AOGCM)和OGCM FAFMMIP实验与一致的海洋模型进行比较,通过比较耦合的大气海洋GCM(AOGCM FAFMMIP实验来量化大气 - 海洋反馈的组分。我们发现AGCMS相对于OGCMS的AMOC减弱了10%,因为由于热再分分配引起的欧洲北大西洋SST冷却放大了表面热通量扰动。大气 - 海洋反馈的这种组成部分增强了北大西洋OCC和DSL变化的模式,分别具有相对较强的增加和降低了热带和卓越性。由于人类活动导致的气候变化,普通语言总结海平面的上升是对沿海社区和环境的重大威胁。由于从大气进入海洋的净热量,海平面上升是由世界海洋的热化和扩张引起的。降雨模式和表面风的变化也影响海平面,但净热量输入变化是最重要的因素。最先进的计算机模型对当地海平面上升的未来预测不同意。有人提出,这种分歧来自净热量输入量的差异,以及进入计算机模型的不同假设。我们在北大西洋中发现了一个大型的当地海平面上涨,从给出几种不同的电脑型号相同的净热量输入变化。这些差异与不确定性相关联的大西洋电流响应给定量的变暖量会减慢。我们还发现电脑型号包括交互式海洋和大气的大气慢速电流,超过电脑型号,具有互动的海洋,但固定的大气。这一发现建立了我们对确定海洋在气候变化中作用的过程的知识。

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