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The Role of Isotope‐Enabled GCM Complexity in Simulating Tropical Circulation Changes in High‐CO2 Scenarios

机译:同位素的GCM复杂性在高二氧化碳情景中模拟热带循环变化中的作用

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Stable water isotopes are data‐rich tracers of the hydrological cycle, and, recently, the advent of isotope‐enabled climate models has allowed for investigations into the utility of water isotopes for tracking changes in the large‐scale atmospheric circulation. Among the suite of published isotope‐enabled climate models, those with intermediate complexity offer the benefits of efficiency, allowing for long ensemble runs. However, the ability of these models to simulate the response to global warming with the same fidelity as state‐of‐the‐art models is questionable. Here we evaluate an intermediate complexity model, SPEEDY‐IER, in a high‐CO2 scenario and compare its performance to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)‐class model, iCAM5. SPEEDY‐IER can generally simulate changes in tropical circulation, the weakening of the Walker circulation, and the narrowing of the deep tropics. A deeper investigation of water isotope fields indicates SPEEDY‐IER simulates qualitative trends in precipitation and vapor isotopes with fidelity, but it does not simulate amplitudes or spatial patterns of water isotope changes shown in iCAM5. This bias in SPEEDY‐IER is mainly due to its coarse resolution and simplified convection scheme. We then modify the model by introducing condensation and detrainment in intermediate convection levels; this modification successfully improves SPEEDY‐IER's simulation of water isotope fields, though the response of the Walker circulation to climate change is weakened. We demonstrate that evaluating water isotope fields reveals hidden biases in a climate model and guides improvements to the model's performance. Thus, the examination of water isotope fields and validation against available observations likely provides more stringent constraints for model physics. Plain Language Summary Climate models are utilized to project climate change as we enter a world with ever‐higher CO2 concentrations, but running these models usually takes a huge amount of time and computational resources. Intermediate‐complexity models circumvent this issue by simplifying model physics and thus save time for long simulations. Moreover, the addition of stable water isotopes in these climate models provides unique constrains in the global water cycle. However, to use intermediate‐complexity models with water isotopes to study the climate of a high‐CO2 world, we need to verify their simulations, and evaluations of these models are sorely lacking. This study evaluates one of these models, SPEEDY‐IER, in a high‐CO2 world. We find that SPEEDY‐IER can simulate fundamental tropical circulation changes, and it is suitable for studies of future climate change. In addition, the evaluation of water isotopes in SPEEDY‐IER reveals hidden biases of the model, and the subsequent modifications based on this evaluation improve SPEEDY‐IER. This provides an example of how diagnosing water isotope fields can improve the performance of climate models.
机译:稳定水同位素水文循环的数据丰富的示踪剂,以及最近启用的同位素气候模型的出现已经允许调查水同位素用于跟踪大型大气环流的变化效用。该套件发布启用同位素气候模型中,那些中间复杂提供高效的优势,允许长期合奏运行。然而,这些模型来模拟使用相同的保真度模型的国家的最先进的应对全球气候变暖的能力值得怀疑。在这里,我们评价一个中间的复杂模型,SPEEDY-IER,在高CO2情景,并比较其性能达到了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)级模型,ICAM5。 SPEEDY-IER可以在热带环流一般模拟的变化,沃克环流的减弱,和深热带收窄。水同位素字段的更深的调查表明SPEEDY-IER模拟了与保真度沉淀和蒸气同位素定性趋势,但它不能模拟幅度或水同位素的空间模式中ICAM5所示变化。此偏压在SPEEDY-IER主要是由于其粗糙的分辨率和简化对流方案。然后,我们修改通过引入在中间对流水平冷凝和疏散模型;这个修改成功地提高了水的同位素领域的SPEEDY-IER的模拟,虽然沃克环流对气候变化的响应减弱。我们证明,评估水同位素领域揭示隐藏偏见气候模型和导游改进模型的性能。因此,水的同位素领域的检查和验证对可观测可能提供了物理模型更严格的限制。平原语言总结气候模型被用于项目气候变化是我们进入这个世界上,越来越高的二氧化碳浓度,但运行这些模型通常需要大量的时间和计算资源量。中间复杂的模型,通过简化物理模型,从而节省时间,长时间的模拟规避这个问题。此外,在这些气候模型中加入稳定的水同位素提供了全球水循环独特的约束。但是,要使用中间复杂的模型与水的同位素研究高CO2世界的气候,我们需要验证他们的模拟,这些模型的评价是非常缺乏。本研究评估这些车型之一,SPEEDY-IER,在高二氧化碳的世界。我们发现,SPEEDY-IER可以模拟根本热带环流的变化,很适合未来气候变化的研究。另外,水的评价同位素SPEEDY-IER揭示隐藏在模型的偏差,并在此基础上评估的后续修改完善SPEEDY-IER。这提供了如何诊断水同位素领域可以改善气候模型的表现的一个例子。

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