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A DRP‐4DVar‐Based Coupled Data Assimilation System With a Simplified Off‐Line Localization Technique for Decadal Predictions

机译:基于DRP-4DVAR的耦合数据同化系统,具有简化离线定位技术的二等预测

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A new weakly coupled data assimilation (CDA) system based on the dimension‐reduced projection four‐dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP‐4DVar) with a simplified off‐line localization technique and a fully coupled model, i.e., the Grid‐point Version 2 of Flexible Global Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Land System Model (FGOALS‐g2), was developed for the initialization of decadal predictions. A 1‐month assimilation window was adopted for the CDA system, in which monthly mean temperature and salinity analyses were assimilated along the trajectory of the coupled model during the initialization for the period of 1945–2006. The system is efficient because the 62‐year initialization only takes about 2.375 times of the time cost of the uninitialized run for the same period. Compared with the uninitialized simulation and the initialization without localization, ocean temperature and salinity, sea surface elevation, surface air temperature, and precipitation are in better agreement with the verification data. Furthermore, climate variabilities in the Pacific and Atlantic regions such as El Ni?o‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are more realistically captured. Starting from the initial conditions (ICs) generated by the initialization, 10‐member ensemble decadal prediction experiments were conducted each year from 1961 to 1996. The results demonstrate that higher decadal prediction skills of surface air temperature anomalies averaged over the globe, ocean, land, and the North Pacific subpolar gyre are achieved than those obtained from persistence, the uninitialized simulation, and the prediction initialized from the ICs without localization. Besides, PDO and AMO indices exhibit significant correlation skills in most lead times. Plain Language Summary The decadal prediction is important for medium‐ and long‐term planning in various fields, e.g., infrastructure, agriculture, fishery, electric power, and tourism. It is usually made by a climate model which includes the ocean, atmosphere, land, and sea ice components. The decadal prediction is initialized from a close‐to‐observed initial state which consistently combines observations and model simulations using a kind of methods called “data assimilation (DA).” However, DA methods for initializing decadal predictions currently around the world are still at an exploring stage, which leads to the inconsistency between the model and the initial state, possibly degrading the prediction skill. This study focuses on proposing a novel DA method for initializing decadal predictions, which is time‐saving and produces initial states consistent with the model. This method is able to well reproduce the multiyear mean ocean temperature and salinity, sea surface elevation, surface air temperature, and precipitation accurately. It also accurately represents the notable climate oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic. The decadal prediction initialized by the new method shows high skills in presenting surface air temperature and the climate oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic.
机译:一种新的弱耦合数据同化(CDA)系统,基于尺寸减小的投影四维变分数据同化(DRP-4DVAR),具有简化的离线定位技术和完全耦合模型,即网格点版本2开发了灵活的全球海洋气氛 - 陆地系统模型(FGoALS-G2),用于初始化二等地区预测。 CDA系统采用1个月同化窗口,其中在初始化期间,在1945 - 2006年期间沿耦合模型的轨迹同化了月平均温度和盐度分析。系统有效,因为62年初始化只需要同期的未初始化运行时间的2.​​375倍。与未初始化的仿真和未经定位的初始化相比,海上温度和盐度,海面高度,表面空气温度和降水与验证数据更好。此外,更现实地捕获了el ni?o-southern振荡,太平洋横向振荡(Poda)和大西洋多型振荡(amo)等地区的气候变量。从初始化的初始条件(ICS)开始,每年从1961年到1996年进行10个成员集合截止预测实验。结果表明,在地球仪,海洋,土地上平均地表空气温度异常的较高的十二次预测技能而且北太平洋亚极性GYRE比从持久性,未初始化的模拟中获得的那些,以及从IC初始化的预测而没有本地化。此外,PDO和AMO指数在大多数情况下表现出显着的相关技能。普通语言摘要Decadal预测对于各个领域的中长期规划非常重要,例如基础设施,农业,渔业,电力和旅游。它通常由气候模型制成,包括海洋,大气,陆地和海冰部件。从近距离观察的初始状态初始化了二数预测,这一致地使用称为“数据同化(DA)”的方法的观察和模型模拟。然而,用于初始化世界各地的Decadal预测的DA方法仍处于探索阶段,这导致模型与初始状态之间的不一致,可能降低预测技能。本研究侧重于提出一种用于初始化二等程度预测的新型DA方法,这是节省时间的,并产生与模型一致的初始状态。该方法能够良好地再现多元的平均海洋温度和盐度,海面升高,表面空气温度和精确沉淀。它还准确地代表了太平洋和大西洋的着名气候振荡。通过新方法初始化的二等程度预测显示了在太平洋和大西洋中呈现表面空气温度和气候振荡的高技能。

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