Avalia??o do consumo energético e emiss?es de dióxido de carbono do transporte rodoviário do Brasil (2016-2026)

摘要

The transport sector is a key sector for the development of a country, but it demands significant energy from fossil fuels generating considerable amounts of greenhouse gases. Given the importance of this sector and its polluting potential, this paper seeks to evaluate the energy consumption and the CO 2 emission from road transport in Brazil. For this, the System Dynamics (SD) method was chosen, involving the relationships between vehicle fleet, GDP (global and transport sector) and investments in road infrastructure (road extension). With the proposed model, nine scenarios were simulated over eleven- years, between 2016 and 2026, from different perspectives. The results showed that the variation of the road vehicle fleet has a greater influence on the energy consumption and consequently, on the CO 2 missions when compared to the composition of fuel use and investments in road pavements.