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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions >Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM
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Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM

机译:欧洲河流盆地的平均值和极端降水更好地模拟25km AGCM

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摘要

Limited spatial resolution is one of the factors that may hamper applications of global climate models (GCMs), in particular over Europe with its complex coastline and orography. In this study, the representation of European mean and extreme precipitation is evaluated in simulations with an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) at different resolutions between about 135 and 25km grid spacing in the mid-latitudes. The continent-wide root-mean-square error in mean precipitation in the 25km model is about 25% smaller than in the 135km model in winter. Clear improvements are also seen in autumn and spring, whereas the model's sensitivity to resolution is very small in summer. Extreme precipitation is evaluated by estimating generalised extreme value distributions (GEVs) of daily precipitation aggregated over river basins whose surface area is greater than 50000km2. GEV location and scale parameters are measures of the typical magnitude and of the interannual variability of extremes, respectively. Median model biases in both these parameters are around 10% in summer and around 20% in the other seasons. For some river basins, however, these biases can be much larger and take values between 50% and 100%. Extreme precipitation is better simulated in the 25km model, especially during autumn when the median GEV parameter biases are more than halved, and in the North European Plains, from the Loire in the west to the Vistula in the east. A sensitivity experiment is conducted showing that these resolution sensitivities in both mean and extreme precipitation are in many areas primarily due to the increase in resolution of the model orography. The findings of this study illustrate the improved capability of a global high-resolution model in simulating European mean and extreme precipitation.
机译:有限的空间分辨率是可能妨碍全球气候模型(GCMS)的因素之一,特别是在欧洲拥有复杂的海岸线和地区。在这项研究中,欧洲平均值和极端沉淀的表示在中间纬度地区的约135和25km栅格间距之间的不同分辨率的仿真中评价了欧洲平均值和极端沉淀。 25km模型中平均沉淀的大陆均方根误差比冬季135km型号小约25%。秋季和春季也看到了清晰的改进,而模型对夏季的敏感性非常小。通过估计在表面积大于500km2的河流盆地的日降水的广义极值分布(GEV)来评估极端沉淀。 GEV位置和比例参数分别是极端统计幅度和极端际变化的测量。这些参数中的模型偏差在夏季约为10%,其他季节约为20%。然而,对于一些河流盆地,这些偏差可以更大,并且在50%和100%之间取得值。在25km的模型中,极端沉淀更好地模拟,特别是在秋季期间,当中间GEV参数偏差在秋季的比例中,在北欧平原中,从西部的卢瓦尔到东方的维莲。进行了敏感性实验,表明这些分辨率和极端沉淀的敏感性在许多领域主要是由于模型的模型的分辨率的增加。该研究的结果说明了全球高分辨率模型在模拟欧洲平均值和极端降水方面的改进能力。

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