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Palaeoclimatological perspective on river basin hydrometeorology: case of the Mekong Basin

机译:河流流域河流域族裔利术学视角:湄公河流域案例

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Globally, there have been many extreme weather events in recent decades. A challenge has been to determine whether these extreme weather events have increased in number and intensity compared to the past. This challenge is made more difficult due to the lack of long-term instrumental data, particularly in terms of river discharge, in many regions including Southeast Asia. Thus our main aim in this paper is to develop a river basin scale approach for assessing interannual hydrometeorological and discharge variability on long, palaeological, time scales. For the development of the basin-wide approach, we used the Mekong River basin as a case study area, although the approach is also intended to be applicable to other basins. Firstly, we derived a basin-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Secondly, we compared the basin-wide PDSI with measured discharge to validate our approach. Thirdly, we used basin-wide PDSI to analyse the hydrometeorology and discharge of the case study area over the study period of 1300–2005. For the discharge-MADA comparison and hydrometeorological analyses, we used methods such as linear correlations, smoothing, moving window variances, Levene type tests for variances, and wavelet analyses. We found that the developed basin-wide approach based on MADA can be used for assessing long-term average conditions and interannual variability for river basin hydrometeorology and discharge. It provides a tool for studying interannual discharge variability on a palaeological time scale, and therefore the approach contributes to a better understanding of discharge variability during the most recent decades. Our case study revealed that the Mekong has experienced exceptional levels of interannual variability during the post-1950 period, which could not be observed in any other part of the study period. The increased variability was found to be at least partly associated with increased El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity.
机译:在全球范围内,近几十年来已经有许多极端天气事件。与过去相比,挑战是确定这些极端天气事件是否增加了数量和强度。由于缺乏长期的工具数据,特别是在河流放电方面,在包括东南亚的许多地区,这一挑战是更加困难的。因此,我们本文的主要目的是开发一种河流级规模方法,用于评估长,古地,时间尺度的持续水质气象和排放变异性。为了开发盆地的方法,我们将湄公河流域用作案例研究区,尽管该方法也旨在适用于其他盆地。首先,我们从季风亚洲干旱地图集(Mada)派生了一个盆地帕尔默干旱严重性指数(PDSI)。其次,我们将池宽的PDSI与测量放电进行比较以验证我们的方法。第三,我们使用盆地PDSI分析了在1300-2005的研究期间分析了案例研究区域的水力解艺和卸货。对于排放 - Mada比较和水矫器学分析,我们使用了线性相关性,平滑,移动窗差异,瓦琳型试验的方法,以及对小波分析。我们发现,基于MADA的发达的盆地方法可用于评估河流流域水质和放电的长期平均条件和际变化。它提供了一种用于研究古地文时间尺度的际放电可变性的工具,因此这些方法有助于在最近几十年内更好地了解放电可变性。我们的案例研究表明,湄公河在1950年代后期的持续可变异程度经历了卓越的际际变量,这在研究期的任何其他部分都无法观察到。发现增加的可变性至少部分地与南部振荡(ENSO)活性增加的eL Ni?Outhern振荡(ENSO)活性。

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