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Singularity-sensitive gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment methods for urban hydrological applications

机译:基于奇异敏感的压力表的城市水文应用雷达降雨调整方法

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Gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment techniques have been widely used to improve the applicability of radar rainfall estimates to large-scale hydrological modelling. However, their use for urban hydrological applications is limited as they were mostly developed based upon Gaussian approximations and therefore tend to smooth off so-called "singularities" (features of a non-Gaussian field) that can be observed in the fine-scale rainfall structure. Overlooking the singularities could be critical, given that their distribution is highly consistent with that of local extreme magnitudes. This deficiency may cause large errors in the subsequent urban hydrological modelling. To address this limitation and improve the applicability of adjustment techniques at urban scales, a method is proposed herein which incorporates a local singularity analysis into existing adjustment techniques and allows the preservation of the singularity structures throughout the adjustment process. In this paper the proposed singularity analysis is incorporated into the Bayesian merging technique and the performance of the resulting singularity-sensitive method is compared with that of the original Bayesian (non singularity-sensitive) technique and the commonly used mean field bias adjustment. This test is conducted using as case study four storm events observed in the Portobello catchment (53 km2) (Edinburgh, UK) during 2011 and for which radar estimates, dense rain gauge and sewer flow records, as well as a recently calibrated urban drainage model were available. The results suggest that, in general, the proposed singularity-sensitive method can effectively preserve the non-normality in local rainfall structure, while retaining the ability of the original adjustment techniques to generate nearly unbiased estimates. Moreover, the ability of the singularity-sensitive technique to preserve the non-normality in rainfall estimates often leads to better reproduction of the urban drainage system's dynamics, particularly of peak runoff flows.
机译:基于仪表的雷达降雨调整技术已被广泛用于提高雷达降雨估计对大规模水文建模的适用性。然而,它们对城市水文应用的用途是有限的,因为它们主要基于高斯近似开发,因此倾向于在​​细尺降雨中可以观察到所谓的“奇点”(非高斯场的特征)结构体。忽视这个奇点可能是至关重要的,因为它们的分布与局部极端大小的分配高度一致。这种缺陷可能导致随后的城市水文建模中的大错误。为了解决这一限制和提高城市尺度调节技术的适用性,在此提出了一种方法,该方法将局部奇异性分析纳入现有的调节技术,并允许在整个调整过程中保存奇点结构。在本文中,将所提出的奇异性分析纳入贝叶斯合并技术中,并将所得奇异性敏感方法的性能与原始贝叶斯(非奇异性)技术和常用的平均场偏置调整进行比较。该测试是使用Portobello集水区(53 km2)(英国爱丁堡,英国)观察到的四种风暴事件进行的案例研究,其中雷达估计,密集的雨量计和下水道流量,以及最近校准的城市排水模型可用。结果表明,一般而言,所提出的奇异性敏感方法可以有效地保持局部降雨结构中的非正常性,同时保留原始调整技术产生几乎无偏见的估计的能力。此外,奇异性敏感技术在降雨估计中保持非正常性的能力通常导致城市排水系统的动态更好地繁殖,特别是峰值径流流动。

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