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Dynamics of hydrological-model parameters: mechanisms, problems and solutions

机译:水文模型参数的动态:机制,问题和解决方案

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It has been demonstrated that the application of time-varying hydrological-model parameters based on dynamic catchment behavior significantly improves the accuracy and robustness of conventional models. However, the fundamental problems for calibrating dynamic parameters still need to be addressed. In this study, five calibration schemes for dynamic parameters in hydrological models were designed to investigate the underlying causes of poor model performance. The five schemes were assessed with respect to the model performance in different flow phases, the transferability of the dynamic parameters to different time periods, the state variables and fluxes time series, and the response of the dynamic parameter set to the dynamic catchment characteristics. Furthermore, the potential reasons for the poor response of the dynamic parameter set to the catchment dynamics were investigated. The results showed that the underlying causes of poor model performance included time-invariant parameters, “compensation” among parameters, high dimensionality and abrupt shifts in the parameters. The recommended calibration scheme exhibited good performance and overcame these problems by characterizing the dynamic behavior of the catchments. The main reason for the poor response of the dynamic parameter set to the catchment dynamics may be the poor convergence performance of the parameters. In addition, the assessment results of the state variables and fluxes and the convergence performance of the parameters provided robust indications of the dominant response modes of the hydrological models in different sub-periods or catchments with distinguishing catchment characteristics.
机译:已经证明,基于动态集水区行为的时变水文模型参数的应用显着提高了传统模型的准确性和鲁棒性。但是,需要解决校准动态参数的根本问题。在这项研究中,设计了水文模型中动态参数的五种校准方案,旨在研究模型性能不佳的潜在原因。在不同流相中的模型性能下评估五种方案,动态参数对不同时间段,状态变量和助熔剂时间序列的可转换性,以及动态参数设置为动态集水区特征的响应。此外,研究了对集水动力学的动态参数响应不良的潜在原因。结果表明,模型性能不佳的潜在原因包括时间不变参数,参数中的“补偿”,高维度和参数中的突然移位。推荐的校准方案表现出良好的性能并通过表征集水器的动态行为来克服这些问题。将动态参数响应较差的主要原因,设置为集水动态的良差可能是参数的收敛性能差。此外,状态变量和助熔剂的评估结果和参数的收敛性能提供了不同子周期或集水区中水文模型的主要响应模式的稳健指示。

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