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Looking beyond general metrics for model comparison lessons from an international model intercomparison study

机译:超越普通指标,从国际模型互相研究中进行模型比较课程

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International collaboration between research institutes and universities is a promising way to reach consensus on hydrological model development. Although model comparison studies are very valuable for international cooperation, they do often not lead to very clear new insights regarding the relevance of the modelled processes. We hypothesise that this is partly caused by model complexity and the comparison methods used, which focus too much on a good overall performance instead of focusing on a variety of specific events. In this study, we use an approach that focuses on the evaluation of specific events and characteristics. Eight international research groups calibrated their hourly model on the Ourthe catchment in Belgium and carried out a validation in time for the Ourthe catchment and a validation in space for nested and neighbouring catchments. The same protocol was followed for each model and an ensemble of best-performing parameter sets was selected. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics (i.e. the NashSutcliffe efficiency), clear differences could be observed for specific events. We analysed the hydrographs of these specific events and conducted three types of statistical analyses on the entire time series: cumulative discharges, empirical extreme value distribution of the peak flows and flow duration curves for low flows. The results illustrate the relevance of including a very quick flow reservoir preceding the root zone storage to model peaks during low flows and including a slow reservoir in parallel with the fast reservoir to model the recession for the studied catchments. This intercomparison enhanced the understanding of the hydrological functioning of the catchment, in particular for low flows, and enabled to identify present knowledge gaps for other parts of the hydrograph. Above all, it helped to evaluate each model against a set of alternative models.
机译:研究机构与大学之间的国际合作是达成对水文模范发展共识的有希望的方式。虽然模型比较研究对于国际合作非常有价值,但它们通常不会导致对建模流程的相关性非常明确的新见解。我们假设这部分是由模型复杂性和使用的比较方法部分引起的,这些方法在良好的整体性能上集中于太多,而不是专注于各种特定事件。在这项研究中,我们使用一种专注于评估特定事件和特征的方法。八个国际研究小组在比利时的集水区上校准了他们的每小时模型,并及时对我们的集水区进行了验证以及嵌套和邻近集水区的空间验证。遵循每个模型的相同协议,选择最佳执行参数集的集合。尽管模型显示了基于一般指标的类似表演(即Nashsutcliffe效率),但可以针对特定事件观察到明确的差异。我们分析了这些特定事件的水文照片,并在整个时间序列中进行了三种类型的统计分析:累积放电,峰值流动的经验极值分布和低流量的流动持续时间曲线。结果说明了包括在根区域存储之前的非常快速流量储存器的相关性,以在低流动期间模拟峰值,并且包括与快速储存器并行的慢速储库,以模拟研究的集水区的衰退。这种相互熟练的熟练增强了对集水器的水文运作的理解,特别是对于低流量,并且能够识别用于水文的其他部分的现有知识间隙。最重要的是,它有助于评估每种替代模型的每个模型。
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