Application of Soil Water Index to landslide prediction in snowy regions: sensitivity analysis in Japan and preliminary results from Tomsk, Russia

摘要

Soil Water Index (SWI) represents the conceptual water stored in the soil and is calculated using a three-layer tank model with hourly precipitation. In Japan, landslide disasters are likely to occur when SWI in an event exceeds the maximum value of the past 10?years; however, snowmelt-driven landslide disasters have not been considered yet. Using the tank model that simultaneously calculates SWI and runoff, we implemented the snowfall-accumulation-snowmelt processes into the original SWI and applied the modified SWI to meteorological data in Tomsk, Russia, in spring 2010 when severe flood and landslide disasters had occurred. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of hourly precipitation in snowy region in Japan considering that meteorological data in Russia are available every 3?h. When we input the average of the three-hourly accumulated precipitation to calculate SWI, the result was almost identical to that of the observed hourly precipitation being given. We then estimated the hourly temperature by linearly interpolating the data every 3?h, and set the threshold of liquid/solid precipitation. The degree-hour method was employed to calculate the snowmelt. The modified SWI predicted the occurrence of snowmelt-driven landslide disasters in Japan when the calculated SWI exceeded the maximum value in the snowmelt season (March–May) for the past 10?years. When applied to meteorological data in Tomsk, the modified SWI and calculated runoff captured the timing of snowmelt-driven flood and landslide disasters in spring 2010. We demonstrated that by focusing on the maximum value of SWI in the snowmelt season for the past 10?years, we can predict snowmelt-driven landslide disasters.