Research on the Relationship between Chinese Express Delivery Industry and Economic Development Based on PVAR Model

摘要

Based on the panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) and the panel data of China’s 31 provinces from 2010 to 2019, this paper conducts a quantitative analysis on the dynamic balance relationship between China’s express business volume and economic development status in recent 10 years. The results show that: Firstly, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development level of express industry and the economic development level; Secondly, the relationship between them presents regional heterogeneity (that is, the East, Centre and the West show different characteristics); Finally, in the short term, the development of express delivery industry and economic development can well drive each other, but in the long term, this trend is not obvious, and the economic impact of express delivery industry has a certain lag.