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Uncovering the behaviour of road accidents in urban areas

机译:揭开城市地区道路事故的行为

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摘要

Different patterns in the incidence of road accidents are revealed when considering areas with increased levels of urbanization. To understand these patterns, road accident data from England and Wales is explored. In particular, the data are used to (i) generate time series for comparison of the incidence of road accidents in urban as opposed to rural areas, (ii) analyse the relationship between the number of road accidents and the population size of a set of urban areas, and (iii) model the likelihood of suffering an accident in an urban area and its dependence with population size. It is observed that minor and serious accidents are more frequent in urban areas, whereas fatal accidents are more likely in rural areas. It is also shown that, generally, the number of accidents in an urban area depends on population size superlinearly, with this superlinear behaviour becoming stronger for lower degrees of severity. Finally, given an accident in an urban area, the probability that the accident is fatal or serious decreases with population size and the probability that it is minor, increases sublinearly. These findings promote the question as to why such behaviours exist, the answer to which will lead to more sustainable urban policies.
机译:在考虑城市化水平增加的区域时,揭示了道路事故发生率的不同模式。要了解这些模式,探讨了英格兰和威尔士的道路事故数据。特别地,数据用于(i)生成时间序列,以比较城市道路事故发生的发生率,而不是农村地区,(ii)分析道路事故数量与一套人口规模之间的关系城市地区,(iii)模型在城市地区遭受事故的可能性及其与人口规模的依赖。据观察,在城市地区的轻微和严重事故中更频繁,而致命事故在农村地区更有可能。还表明,一般而言,城市地区的事故的数量取决于群体大小超短,具有这种超级线性行为对于较低的严重程度变得更强。最后,鉴于城市地区的事故,事故是致命或严重的概率随人口规模和较小的概率而增加,增加了延长的。这些调查结果促进了为什么这样的行为存在的问题,这将导致更可持续的城市政策。

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