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Nutrition and venous thrombosis: An exercise in thinking about survivor bias

机译:营养和静脉血栓形成:幸存者偏见的思考

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Suppose you listen to a radio station that usually plays contemporarymusic hits, but has a “listener request hour” for classic songs. At theend of the hour the DJ sighs that, “they don’t make songs like theyused too.” However, as the DJ did not play or recall all the othersongs that were produced around the time that the classic song wasproduced, how can one know that what the DJ says is true? Themusic that was made then may have been of similar quality as mostof the music that is produced now, with a few exceptions that are rememberedas “classics.” But since the DJ (thankfully) did not play allthe bad songs from the record and only remembered the requestedclassic, the DJ’s assessment of the past, where music seemed somuch better, could have been biased.
机译:假设您倾听通常扮演ContemporicMusic Hits的无线电台,但是对于经典歌曲的“侦听器请求小时”。在小时的时间里,DJ叹了出来,“他们也不会像他们一样歌曲。”然而,正如DJ没有播放或回忆在经典歌曲所产生的时间周围的所有其他人,因为一个人才知道DJ所说的是真的吗?所做的题名可能是与现在产生的音乐一样类似的质量,其中一些例外是记忆的“经典”。但由于DJ(谢天谢地)没有从记录中发挥所有坏歌曲,只记得请求的职位,DJ对过去的评估,音乐似乎更好,可能已经偏见了。

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