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From research to applications – examples of operational ensemble post-processing in France using machine learning

机译:从研究的研究 - 使用机器学习法国运营集合后处理的例子

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Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts, from simple linear regressions to more sophisticated techniques, is now a well-known procedure for correcting biased and poorly dispersed ensemble weather predictions. However, practical applications in national weather services are still in their infancy compared to deterministic post-processing. This paper presents two different applications of ensemble post-processing using machine learning at an industrial scale. The first is a station-based post-processing of surface temperature and subsequent interpolation to a grid in a medium-resolution ensemble system. The second is a gridded post-processing of hourly rainfall amounts in a high-resolution ensemble prediction system. The techniques used rely on quantile regression forests (QRFs) and ensemble copula coupling (ECC), chosen for their robustness and simplicity of training regardless of the variable subject to calibration. Moreover, some variants of classical techniques used, such as QRF and ECC, were developed in order to adjust to operational constraints. A forecast anomaly-based QRF is used for temperature for a better prediction of cold and heat waves. A variant of ECC for hourly rainfall was built, accounting for more realistic longer rainfall accumulations. We show that both forecast quality and forecast value are improved compared to the raw ensemble. Finally, comments about model size and computation time are made.
机译:从简单的线性回归到更复杂的技术的统计后处理,现在是纠正偏见的偏见和较差的集合天气预报的众所周知的过程。然而,与确定性后处理相比,国家天气服务中的实际应用仍处于起步阶段。本文在工业规模上使用机器学习提供了两种不同应用的集合后处理。首先是基于站的表面温度和后续插值的基于站的后期处理,并在中分辨率集合系统中的网格插值。第二个是高分辨率集合预测系统中每小时降雨量的网格处理。使用依赖量子回归林(QRF)和集合Copula耦合(ECC)的技术,为其鲁棒性和培训的简单性而选择,而不管校准。此外,开发了一些使用的经典技术的变体,例如QRF和ECC,以便调整到操作约束。预测基于异常的QRF用于温度,以更好地预测冷和热波。建立了每小时降雨的ECC变种,占更逼真的更长的降雨累积。我们表明,与原始集合相比,预测质量和预测值都得到了改善。最后,提出了关于模型大小和计算时间的评论。

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