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Mahalanobis distance-based recognition of changes in the dynamics of a seismic process

机译:Mahalanobis基于距离的抗震过程动态变化的识别

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In the present work, we aim to analyse the regularity of a seismic process based on its spatial, temporal, and energetic characteristics. Increments of cumulative times, increments of cumulative distances, and increments of cumulative seismic energies are calculated from an earthquake catalogue for southern California from 1975 to 2017. As the method of analysis, we use the multivariate Mahalanobis distance calculation, combined with a surrogate data testing procedure that is often used for the testing of non-linear structures in complex data sets. Before analysing the dynamical features of the seismic process, we tested the used approach for two different 3-D models in which the dynamical features were changed from more regular to more randomised conditions by adding a certain degree of noise. An analysis of the variability in the extent of regularity of the seismic process was carried out for different completeness magnitude thresholds. The results of our analysis show that in about a third of all the 50-data windows the original seismic process was indistinguishable from a random process based on its features of temporal, spatial, and energetic variability. It was shown that prior to the occurrence of strong earthquakes, mostly in periods of generation of relatively small earthquakes, the percentage of windows in which the seismic process is indistinguishable from a random process increases (to 60%–80%). During periods of aftershock activity, the process of small earthquake generation became regular in all of the windows considered, and thus was markedly different from the randomised catalogues. In some periods within the catalogue, the seismic process appeared to be closer to randomness, while in other cases it became closer to a regular behaviour. More specifically, in periods of relatively decreased earthquake generation activity (with low energy release), the seismic process appears to be random, while during periods of occurrence of strong events, followed by series of aftershocks, significant deviation from randomness is shown, i.e. the extent of regularity markedly increases. The period for which such deviation from random behaviour lasts depends on the amount of seismic energy released by the strong earthquake.
机译:在目前的工作中,我们的目标是根据其空间,时间和精力充沛的特征来分析地震过程的规律性。累积时间的增量,累积距离的增量,累积地震能量的增量是从1975年到2017年的南加州地震目录计算的。作为分析方法,我们使用多元哈尔纳诺比斯距离计算,结合代理数据测试通常用于测试复杂数据集中非线性结构的过程。在分析地震过程的动态特征之前,我们测试了两种不同的三维模型的使用方法,其中通过增加一定程度的噪声来改变动态特征。对不同完整性幅度阈值进行了地震过程规律程度的变异性的分析。我们的分析结果表明,在所有50个数据窗口中的约三分之一中,原始地震过程的原始地震过程基于其时空,空间和能量变异性的特征,无法从随机过程中无法区分。结果表明,在发生强烈地震的情况下,大多数在生成相对较小的地震时期,窗户的百分比难以从随机过程中无法区分(达到60%-80%)。在余震活动期间,在考虑所有窗口中,小地震生成的过程变得常规,因此与随机目录显着不同。在目录中的某些时期,地震过程似乎更接近随机性,而在其他情况下,它变得更接近普通行为。更具体地,在相对减少的地震生成活动(具有低能量释放)的时段中,地震过程似乎是随机的,而在发生强烈事件的情况下,随后是一系列余震,显示出与随机性的显着偏差,即规律程度显着增加。这种偏差与随机行为持续的时期取决于强烈地震所释放的地震能量的量。

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