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COVID-19 in Cuba: Assessing the National Response

机译:Covid-19在古巴:评估国家反应

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The COVID-19 pandemic exhibits different characteristics in each country, related to the extent of SARS-CoV-2 local transmission, as well as the speed and effectiveness of epidemic response implemented by authorities. This study presents a descriptive epidemiological analysis of the daily and cumulative incidence of confi rmed cases and deaths in Cuba from COVID-19 in the fi rst 110 days after fi rst-case confi rmation on March 11, 2020. During this period, 2340 cases (20.7 x 100,000 population) were confi rmed, of which 86 patients died (case fatality 3.67%; 52 men and 34 women). Mean age of the deceased was 73.6 years (with a minimum of 35 years and a maximum of 101), with the average age of men lower than that of women. More than 70% of all deceased had associated noncommunicable diseases. The incidence curve ascended for fi ve weeks and then descended steadily. The average number of confi rmed cases and deaths for the last week included (June 23–28, 2020) were 25 and 1 respectively; the curve always moved within the most favorable forecast zone of available mathematical models and the effective reproductive number fell below 1 after the fi fth week following the onset of the epidemic. We present the prevention and control measures implemented during this period—some unique to Cuba—and assess their effectiveness using two analytical tools: comparison of observed deaths and confi rmed cases with those predicted by mathematical models; and estimation of the effective reproductive rate of SARS-CoV-2. Some distinctive features of this strategy include nationwide door-to-door active screening for individuals with fever and/or symptoms of respiratory distress, isolation of cases and quarantine of contacts of confi rmed cases and of persons suspected of having the virus. During this period, Cuba’s response to the epidemic was successful in fl attening the curve and limiting transmission, resulting in fewer cases and a lower number of subsequent deaths.
机译:Covid-19大流行在每个国家的不同特征表现出与SARS-COV-2本地传输的程度相关,以及当局实施的流行病反应的速度和有效性。本研究提出了对Covid-19在2020年3月11日之后的110天内从Covid-19的Conti-19的Conti-19的日常和累积率的描述性流行病学分析。在此期间,在此期间,2340例(20.7 x 100,000人口)是Confi Rmed,其中86名患者死亡(病例死亡3.67%; 52名男子和34名女性)。死者的平均年龄为73.6岁(至少35年,最多101岁),男性平均年龄低于妇女。超过70%的死者患有相关的非传染性疾病。第五周提升的发射曲线,然后稳步下降。包括(6月23日至28日,2020年)为25和1的平均Confi rMed病例和死亡人数分别为25和1;曲线总是在现有数学模型的最有利的预测区内移动,并且在流行病发作后,在第五周之后,有效的生殖号在1之后跌破。我们提出了在此期间实施的预防和控制措施 - 古巴的一些独特 - 并使用两种分析工具评估其有效性:观察到的死亡和与数学模型预测的人的案例比较;估计SARS-COV-2有效生殖率。该策略的一些独特特征包括全国范围的门到门,为呼吸窘迫发烧和/或症状的个体,分离Confi rMed病例和怀疑患病毒的人的案例和隔离物隔离。在此期间,古巴对疫情的反应是成功的,患有曲线和限制传播,导致较少的病例和较少的后续死亡。

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