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Modelling Transmission of Buruli Ulcer in the Central Region of Ghana

机译:加纳中部地区布鲁利溃疡的建模传播

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The pathogen of Buruli Ulcer (BU) is known to be Mycobacterium Ulcerans whose mode of transmission is entirely not known, although the disease is recognised to be associated with contaminated water. The hypothesised transmission involves humans being bitten by the water bugs (vector) that prey on mollusks, snails and young fishes. The hypothesised transmission also involves humans feeding on an infected fish or frog. This study seeks to contribute to the dynamics and analyses of the transmission mechanism of Buruli Ulcer in communities along Offin River in the Central Region of Ghana. The model equilibria were determined and conditions for the equilibria were also established. The basic reproduction number, was derived using the Next Generation approach and its estimated value was 1.20771. The result reveals that, is greater than 1, indicating a horizontal spread of the infection across the population. The transmission dynamics of Buruli Ulcer model of the Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) type also show that the disease will continue to spread at the study areas as long as the reservoir for Mycobacterium Ulcerans continue to sustain enough infected water bugs and infected fish or infected frog to contain the disease. The study further concludes that, the rate of spread of Buruli Ulcer in the affected communities continue to be high due to its mode of transmission. This study suggest that adequate control measures including mass education and prompt treatment to curb the spread should be emphasized.
机译:已知乌拉里溃疡(Bu)的病原体是分枝杆菌溃疡,其透射方式完全没有知,尽管疾病被认为与受污染的水有关。假设的传播涉及人类被水虫(向量)咬在软体动物,蜗牛和年轻鱼类上。假设的传播还涉及人类喂养受感染的鱼或青蛙。本研究旨在有助于为加纳中部地区沿线河流沿线河流中乌拉利溃疡传动机制的动态和分析。确定了均衡的型号,并确定了均衡的条件。使用下一代方法导出基本再现号,其估计值为1.20771。结果表明,大于1,表明对人口中感染的水平扩散。易感,感染和恢复(先生)的乌拉利溃疡模型的传播动力也表明,只要分枝杆菌的储层继续维持足够的感染的水虫和感染的鱼或被感染的鱼类,疾病将继续在研究领域蔓延。感染的青蛙含有疾病。该研究进一步得出结论,由于其传播方式,受影响社区中的乌拉里溃疡的蔓延率持续高。本研究表明,应强调应强调包括群众教育和迅速治疗以遏制传播的充分控制措施。

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