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An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases

机译:人口预测概述 - 方法论概念,国际数据可用性和用例

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Population projections serve various actors at subnational, national, and international levels as a quantitative basis for political and economic decision-making. Usually, the users are no experts in statistics or forecasting and therefore lack the methodological and demographic background to completely understand methods and limitations behind the projections they use to inform further analysis. Our contribution primarily targets that readership. Therefore, we give a brief overview of different approaches to population projection and discuss their respective advantages and disadvantages, alongside practical problems in population data and forecasting. Fundamental differences between deterministic and stochastic approaches are discussed, with special emphasis on the advantages of stochastic approaches. Next to selected projection data available to the public, we show central areas of application of population projections, with an emphasis on Germany.
机译:人口预测作为政治和经济决策的定量基础,为地方,国家和国际一级提供各种演员。通常,用户在统计或预测中没有专家,因此缺乏方法论和人口背景,以完全了解他们用于通知进一步分析的预测背后的方法和限制。我们的贡献主要是读者的目标。因此,我们简要概述了不同人口投影的方法,并讨论了各自的优缺点,以及人口数据和预测中的实际问题。讨论了确定性和随机方法之间的根本差异,特别强调了随机方法的优势。旁边可供公众提供所选投影数据,我们向中央领域展示了人口预测的应用,重点是德国。

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