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Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble

机译:与CMIP5模型集合相比,评估BESM-OA2.5的气候变化模拟结果的性能

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The main features of climate change patterns, as simulated by the coupled ocean–atmosphere version 2.5 of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM), are compared with those of 25 other CMIP5 models, focusing on temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and radiative feedbacks. The climate sensitivity to quadrupling the atmospheric CO2 concentration was investigated via two methods: linear regression (Gregory et?al.,?2004) and radiative kernels (Soden and Held,?2006; Soden et?al.,?2008). Radiative kernels from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) were used to decompose the climate feedback responses of the CMIP5 models and BESM into different processes. By applying the linear regression method for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimation, we obtained a BESM value close to the ensemble mean value. This study reveals that the BESM simulations yield zonally average feedbacks, as estimated from radiative kernels, that lie within the ensemble standard deviation. Exceptions were found in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and over the ocean near Antarctica, where BESM showed values for lapse rate, humidity feedback, and albedo that were marginally outside the standard deviation of the values from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. For those areas, BESM also featured a strong positive cloud feedback that appeared as an outlier compared with all analyzed models. However, BESM showed physically consistent changes in the temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation patterns relative to the CMIP5 ensemble mean.
机译:由巴西地球系统型号(BESM)的耦合海洋气氛2.5(BESM)模拟的气候变化模式的主要特点与其他25个CMIP5型号相比,聚焦温度,降水,大气循环和辐射反馈。到四倍大气CO 2浓度的气候敏感性经由两种方法研究:线性回归(Gregory等人,2004??)和辐射内核(索登并保持,2006;索登等人,2008???)。来自美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)和地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL)辐射内核使用的CMIP5模式和BESM的气候反馈响应分解成不同的过程。通过应用用于平衡气候敏感度(ECS)估计的线性回归方法,我们获得了靠近集合均值的BESM值。该研究表明,BESM模拟估计在辐射内核中的Zonally平均反馈,其位于集合标准偏差内。在北半球的高纬度和南极洲海洋海洋的高纬度中发现了例外,其中BESM显示出流逝速率,湿度反馈和反向的价值观,这些价值在CMIP5多模型集合中的标准偏差之外。对于这些区域,BESM还具有强大的积极云反馈,与所有分析的模型相比出现为异常值。然而,相对于CMIP5合奏的平均值,BESM显示出温度,沉淀和大气循环模式的物理一致的变化。
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