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首页> 外文期刊>Geoscientific Model Development Discussions >The road weather model RoadSurf (v6.60b) driven by the regional climate model HCLIM38: evaluation over Finland
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The road weather model RoadSurf (v6.60b) driven by the regional climate model HCLIM38: evaluation over Finland

机译:由区域气候模型HCLIM38驱动的道路天气模型Roadsurf(v6.60b):芬兰评估

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In this paper, we evaluate the skill of the road weather model RoadSurf to reproduce present-day road weather conditions in Finland. RoadSurf was driven by meteorological input data from cycle 38 of the high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM38) with ALARO physics (HCLIM38-ALARO) and ERA-Interim forcing in the lateral boundaries. Simulated road surface temperatures and road surface conditions were compared to observations between 2002 and 2014 at 25 road weather stations located in different parts of Finland. The main characteristics of road weather conditions were accurately captured by RoadSurf in the study area. For example, the model simulated road surface temperatures with a mean monthly bias of ?0.3°C and mean absolute error of 0.9°C. The RoadSurf's output bias most probably stemmed from the absence of road maintenance operations in the model, such as snow plowing and salting, and the biases in the input meteorological data. The biases in the input data were most evident in northern parts of Finland, where the regional climate model HCLIM38-ALARO overestimated precipitation and had a warm bias in near-surface air temperatures during the winter season. Moreover, the variability in the biases of air temperature was found to explain on average 57% of the variability in the biases of road surface temperature. On the other hand, the absence of road maintenance operations in the model might have affected RoadSurf's ability to simulate road surface conditions: the model tended to overestimate icy and snowy road surfaces and underestimate the occurrence of water on the road. However, the overall good performance of RoadSurf implies that this approach can be used to study the impacts of climate change on road weather conditions in Finland by forcing RoadSurf with future climate projections from RCMs, such as HCLIM.
机译:在本文中,我们评估了道路天气模型Roadsurf在芬兰重现当今道路天气条件的技术。 Roadsurf由高分辨率区域气候模型(RCM)谐波 - 气候(HCLIM38)的循环38的气象输入数据驱动,具有Alaro物理(HCLIM38-Alaro)和横向边界的ERA-临时迫使。将模拟的道路表面温度和道路表面条件与位于芬兰不同地区的25个道路气象站的2002和2014之间的观察。在研究区域的道路上被道路准确地捕获了道路天气条件的主要特征。例如,模型模拟道路表面温度,平均每月偏差为0.3°C,平均误差为0.9°C。 Roadsurf的输出偏差最多可能源于模型中没有道路维护操作,如雪犁和盐,以及输入气象数据中的偏差。投入数据中的偏差在芬兰北部最明显,区域气候模型HCLIM38-ALARO高估沉淀,在冬季的近地表空气温度下具有温暖的偏见。此外,发现空气温度偏差的可变性在路面温度的偏差中平均解释了平均57%的变异性。另一方面,模型中没有道路维护操作可能会影响道路树立的能力模拟道路表面条件:该模型倾向于高估冰冷和雪的路面,低估了道路上的水的发生。然而,道路安全性的总体表现意味着这种方法可用于研究气候变化对芬兰的道路天气条件的影响,通过迫使RODSURF从RCMS等HCLIM等气候预测。

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