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ATAT 1.1, the Automated Timing Accordance Tool for comparing ice-sheet model output with geochronological data

机译:ATAT 1.1,采用地理学数据进行比较冰纸模型输出的自动化时序的工具

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Earth's extant ice sheets are of great societal importance given their ongoing and potential future contributions to sea-level rise. Numerical models of ice sheets are designed to simulate ice-sheet behaviour in response to climate changes but to be improved require validation against observations. The direct observational record of extant ice sheets is limited to a few recent decades, but there is a large and growing body of geochronological evidence spanning millennia constraining the behaviour of palaeo-ice sheets. Hindcasts can be used to improve model formulations and study interactions between ice sheets, the climate system and landscape. However, ice-sheet modelling results have inherent quantitative errors stemming from parameter uncertainty and their internal dynamics, leading many modellers to perform ensemble simulations, while uncertainty in geochronological evidence necessitates expert interpretation. Quantitative tools are essential to examine which members of an ice-sheet model ensemble best fit the constraints provided by geochronological data. We present the Automated Timing Accordance Tool (ATAT version 1.1) used to quantify differences between model results and geochronological data on the timing of ice-sheet advance and/or retreat. To demonstrate its utility, we perform three simplified ice-sheet modelling experiments of the former British–Irish ice sheet. These illustrate how ATAT can be used to quantify model performance, either by using the discrete locations where the data originated together with dating constraints or by comparing model outputs with empirically derived reconstructions that have used these data along with wider expert knowledge. The ATAT code is made available and can be used by ice-sheet modellers to quantify the goodness of fit of hindcasts. ATAT may also be useful for highlighting data inconsistent with glaciological principles or reconstructions that cannot be replicated by an ice-sheet model.
机译:鉴于对海平面上升的持续和潜在的未来贡献,地球的现存冰板具有巨大的社会重要性。冰盖的数值模型旨在模拟冰板行为以响应气候变化,但要改善需要验证对观察结果。现场冰盖的直接观察记录仅限于近几十年的几十年,但是跨越跨越古冰床的行为的几千年地位证据存在着大而且增长的身体。 Hindcasts可用于改善模型配方和冰盖之间的相互作用,气候系统和景观。然而,冰床建模结果具有来自参数不确定性的固有定量误差及其内部动态,导致许多莫德勒进行集合模拟,而地理学证据的不确定性需要专家解释。定量工具对于检查冰床模型集合的哪些成员必须最适合地理论系数据提供的约束。我们介绍了自动化的时序(ATAT版本1.1),用于量化模型结果与地理学数据之间的差异,请参阅冰盖前进和/或退缩的时序。为了展示其实用程序,我们执行了前英国爱尔兰冰盖的三种简化的冰床建模实验。这些说明了ATAT如何用于量化模型性能,可以通过使用与约会约束一起或通过将模型输出与已经使用这些数据的经验导出的重建进行比较以及更广泛的专家知识来计算模型性能来量化模型性能。 ATAT代码是可用的,可以通过冰刀片塑造来量化HindCasts的良好性。 Atat也可用于突出显示与无法通过冰板模型复制的冰川原理或重建不一致的数据。

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