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Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 5.0 over the CORDEX Central Asia Domain

机译:敏感性研究与地区气候模型COSMO-CLM 5.0在Cordex中亚领域

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Due to its extension, geography and the presence of several underdeveloped or developing economies, the Central Asia domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth to the effects of climate changes. Reliable information on potential future changes with high spatial resolution acquire significant importance for the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for the region. In this context, regional climate models (RCMs) play a fundamental role. In this paper, the results of a set of sensitivity experiments with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM version 5.0, for the Central Asia CORDEX domain, are presented. Starting from a reference model setup, general model performance is evaluated for the present day, testing the effects of singular changes in the model physical configuration and their mutual interaction with the simulation of monthly and seasonal values of three variables that are important for impact studies: near-surface temperature, precipitation and diurnal temperature range. The final goal of this study is two-fold: having a general overview of model performance and its uncertainties for the considered region and determining at the same time an optimal model configuration. Results show that the model presents remarkable deficiencies over different areas of the domain. The combined change of the albedo, taking into consideration the ratio of forest fractions, and the soil conductivity, taking into account the ratio of liquid water and ice in the soil, allows one to achieve the best improvements in model performance in terms of climatological means. Importantly, the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features, and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation. The analyses also show that improvements in model performance are not achievable for all domain subregions and variables, and they are the result of a compensation effect in the different cases. The proposed better performing configuration in terms of mean climate leads to similar positive improvements when considering different observational data sets and boundary data employed to force the simulations. On the other hand, due to the large uncertainties in the variability estimates from observations, the use of different boundaries and the model internal variability, it has not been possible to rank the different simulations according to their representation of the monthly variability. This work is the first ever sensitivity study of an RCM for the CORDEX Central Asia domain and its results are of fundamental importance for further model development and for future climate projections over the area.
机译:由于其延伸,地理位置和一些欠发达或发展中经济体的存在,协调区域气候缩小实验(Cordex)的中亚领域是地球上最脆弱的地区之一,气候变化的影响。有关高空间决议的潜在未来变化的可靠性信息获取了对该地区有效适应和缓解战略的发展的重大。在这种情况下,区域气候模型(RCMS)起着基本作用。本文提出了一系列敏感性实验的结果,具有区域气候模型COSMO-CLM 5.0版,用于中亚CORDEX域。从参考模型设置开始,将一般模型性能进行评估,测试了模型物理配置的奇异变化的影响及其相互交互的效果与对影响研究的三个变量的月度和季节值的模拟,这是对影响研究的三个变量的模拟:近表面温度,降水和昼夜温度范围。本研究的最终目标是两倍:概述模型性能及其对所考虑的区域的不确定性并同时确定最佳模型配置。结果表明,该模型在域不同区域呈现出显着的缺陷。考虑到森林分数与土壤中的比例,考虑到土壤中液体水和冰的比例,允许人们在气候手段方面实现最佳改进。重要的是,该模型似乎对处理土壤和表面特征的那些参数特别敏感,并且可以积极地影响传入辐射的重置。分析还表明,对于所有域子区域和变量,无法实现模型性能的改进,并且它们是不同情况下的补偿效果的结果。在考虑不同的观察数据集和用于迫使模拟的边界数据时,提出了在平均气氛方面更好地执行配置。另一方面,由于观察到的可变性估计的巨大不确定性,使用不同的边界和模型内部变异性,因此不可能根据它们的月度变异性的表示对不同的模拟进行排名。这项工作是Cordex中亚领域的RCM对RCM的第一个敏感性研究,其结果对于进一步的模式开发和未来在该地区的气候预测方面具有根本重要性。

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