In modern dairy breeding programmes, high contributions from foreign sires are nearly always present. Genotyping, and therefore genomic selection (GS), concern only a subpopulation of the breeding programme s wider dairy population. These features of a breeding programme contribute in different ways to the rate of genetic gain for the wider industry. A deterministic recursive gene flow model across subpopulations of animals in a dairy industry was created to predict the commercial performance of replacement heifers and future artificial insemination bulls. Various breeding strategies were assessed by varying the reliability of breeding values, the genetic contributions from subpopulations, and the genetic trend and merit of the foreign subpopulation. A higher response in the true breeding goal measured in standard deviations (SD) of true merit (G) after 20 years of selection can be achieved when genetic contributions shift towards higher merit alternatives compared to keeping them fixed. A foreign annual genetic trend of 0.08 SD of the breeding goal, while the domestic genetic trend is 0.10 SD, results in the overall net present value of genetic gain increasing by 1.2, 2.3, and 3.4% after 20 years as the reliability of GS in the domestic population increased from 0.3 to 0.45, 0.60 and 0.75. With a foreign genetic trend of 0.10 SD, these increases are more modest; 0.9, 1.7, and 2.4%. Increasing the foreign genetic trend so that it is higher than the domestic trend erodes the benefits of increasing the reliability of domestic GS further. Having a foreign source of genetic material with a high rate of genetic progress contributes substantially to the benefits of domestic genetic progress while at the same time reducing the expected returns from investments to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction in the home country.
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