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Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

机译:财政政策对尼日利亚经济增长的影响:实证分析

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The study investigated the impact of fiscal policy on the economic growth in Nigeria, Annual time series data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin for the period 1981 to 2018 on the variables used for the study. Unit root test was conducted using Augmented Dickey-Fuller test technique and the result showed that the variables were stationary though at different levels. Co-integration test was also conducted using Johanssen co-integration test method and the result showed that the variables in the model were co-integrated implying that the variables have a long run relationship. The vector error correction estimate of short run relationship showed that domestic debt, external debt and non-oil revenue have a positive and significant impact on economic growth while recurrent expenditure and capital expenditure have a negative and significant impact on economic growth. The vector error correction estimate of long run relationship revealed that domestic debt and external debt have a negative and insignificant impact on while recurrent expenditure has a negative and significant impact on economic growth. The result showed that capital expenditure has a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth while non-oil revenue has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. The R-squared value showed that about 80.7 percent of the total variations in the dependent variable were explained by changes in the explanatory variables. The error correction result revealed that the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is 23.7 percent when any past deviation must be corrected in the present period. Based on the findings, it was recommended that government should ensure greater percentage of its spending goes to the capital expenditure while smaller percentage goes to the recurrent expenditure as this will help to prove adequate infrastructure that will help in stimulating economic growth. Government should also ensure that there is full and honest implementation of the annual budget. Government should equally ensure that ensure that public debts are strictly used for the purpose for which they are meant for.
机译:该研究调查了财政政策对尼日利亚经济增长的影响,从尼日利亚中央统计公告中获得了1981年至2018年用于研究的变量的亚洲统计公报。使用增强的DICKEY-FULLER测试技术进行单位根系测试,结果表明,变量在不同的水平下静止。还使用约翰森共同集成试验方法进行共同集成试验,结果表明,模型中的变量是共同集成的,这意味着变量具有长期运行关系。短期关系的误差校正估计表明,国内债务,外债和非石油收入对经济增长产生了积极和重大影响,而经济开发和资本支出对经济增长产生了负面影响。长期关系的速度纠错估计显示,国内债务和外债对对经济增长产生负面和重大影响的同时对经济增长产生负面和重大影响。结果表明,资本支出对经济增长产生负面和微不足道的影响,而非石油收入对经济增长产生了积极和重大影响。 R线值表明,通过解释变量的变化解释了约80.7%的依赖变量的总变化。误差校正结果显示,当在本时期内必须校正任何过去的偏差时,调整到长期均衡的调整速度为23.7%。基于调查结果,建议政府应确保其支出的比例更高,而较小的百分比达到经常性支出,因为这将有助于证明有助于激发经济增长的适当基础设施。政府还应确保在年度预算中充分和诚实地执行。政府应同样确保确保公共债务严格用于他们所含义的目的。

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