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Prediction of employment and unemployment rates from Twitter daily rhythms in the US

机译:从美国推特日常节奏的就业和失业率预测

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By modeling macro-economical indicators using digital traces of human activities on mobile or social networks, we can provide important insights to processes previously assessed via paper-based surveys or polls only. We collected aggregated workday activity timelines of US counties from the normalized number of messages sent in each hour on the online social network Twitter. In this paper, we show how county employment and unemployment statistics are encoded in the daily rhythm of people by decomposing the activity timelines into a linear combination of two dominant patterns. The mixing ratio of these patterns defines a measure for each county, that correlates significantly with employment ((0.46pm0.02)) and unemployment rates ((-0.34pm0.02)). Thus, the two dominant activity patterns can be linked to rhythms signaling presence or lack of regular working hours of individuals. The analysis could provide policy makers a better insight into the processes governing employment, where problems could not only be identified based on the number of officially registered unemployed, but also on the basis of the digital footprints people leave on different platforms.
机译:通过在移动或社交网络上使用数字痕迹的数字痕迹建模宏观经济指标,我们可以为先前通过基于纸张的调查或民意调查进行评估的过程提供重要见解。我们从在线社交网络推特上每小时发送的正常消息数收集美国县的聚合工作日活动时间表。在本文中,我们展示了县的就业和失业统计数据在人们的每日节奏中通过分解成两种主要模式的线性组合来编码人们的日常节奏中。这些图案的混合比定义了每个县的措施,与就业(0.46 PM0.02 ))和失业率有显着关联(( - 0.34 PM0.02 ))。因此,两个主导活动模式可以与节奏信号存在或缺乏个体的常规工作时间相关联。分析可以为决策者提供更好地了解管理就业的流程,其中不仅根据正式登记失业的人数来确定问题,而且在数字足迹人员留在不同平台上的基础上。

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