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An electricity load forecasting model for Integrated Energy System based on BiGAN and transfer learning

机译:基于BIGAN和转移学习的集成能源系统电力负荷预测模型

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Integrated Energy System (IES) is able to collaborate various energy systems and boost energy supply efficiency. To further facilitate the energy scheduling in IES, load forecasting model of the system is required to describe the conditions continuously on a future time span. While the IES is a service model with frequent in-and-out users which are always dynamically changed, thus the dataset for some new users is always not enough sufficient to build the predicting model. Most of present researches focus on model refinement and accuracy boosting but rarely consider such data lack problem in IES. To tackle this issue, an integrated load forecasting model based on Bidirectional Generative Adversarial Networks (BiGAN) data augmentation and transfer learning techniques is proposed in this paper. Ten different types of data-driven models including the proposed model have been compared on two cases, resident and commercial users, in order to carry out the ablation and contrast experiment. Accuracy with the presented model is 2.08% and 1.50% higher than the original model averagely on resident and commercial users respectively, proving the effectiveness of the new model. And impact of sample size is analyzed and disclosed the effect patterns of the two modules. Result shows that the two modules can flexibly couple with different predictive models and boost their efficiency on both resident and commercial cases on data missing problem. And load forecasting becomes feasible for users with fewer samples or even zero samples when adopting the proposed framework.
机译:集成能量系统(IE)能够协作各种能量系统并提高能量供应效率。为了进一步促进IES中的能量调度,需要对系统的负载预测模型在未来的时间跨度上连续描述条件。虽然IES是具有频繁的内输出用户的服务模型,但始终动态地改变,因此某些新用户的数据集总是足以建立预测模型。现在的大多数研究专注于模型改进和准确性提升,但很少考虑这些数据在IES中缺乏问题。为了解决这个问题,本文提出了一种基于双向生成对冲网络(BIGAN)数据增强和转移学习技术的集成负荷预测模型。在两种情况下,居民和商业用户中,已经在两种情况下,常规和商业用户进行了十种不同类型的数据驱动模型,以便进行消融和对比实验。呈现型号的准确性分别比常规和商业用户分别高出2.08%和1.50%,分别对居民和商业用户提供了2.08%和1.50%,证明了新模型的有效性。分析样本大小的影响并公开了两个模块的效果模式。结果表明,这两个模块可以灵活地加上不同的预测模型,并提高对数据缺失问题的常驻和商业案例的效率。在采用所提出的框架时,具有较少样本或甚至零样品的用户变得可行。

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