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Different causes of closure of Small Business Enterprises: alternative models for competing risks survival analysis

机译:小企业封闭原因:竞争风险竞争分析的替代模型

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We examine the time until closure of Small Business Enterprises in Umbria, Italy between 2008 and 2013, and the factors that influence it. Earlier analysis, using Cox regression, considered failure (closure) from any cause. However, there are different reasons for inactivity: voluntary winding-up (1808 of 15184 firms in our data, 59.3% of the 3049 failures); bankruptcy (236, 7.7%); and closure without action by creditors or courts (1005, 33.0%). While the earlier analysis provides a valuable overall picture, it is also interesting to ex- amine the separate causes, their rates of occurrence and which factors influence them separately. We do this using competing risks analyses, employing both of the regression methods that are prominent in the literature, based on cause-specific and sub-distribution hazard functions (Fine-Gray model). Furthermore, a proportional odds model was used to estimate cumulative incidences of failure by cause. Data included the firm's year of foundation, location, legal form and sector of activity. Financial indexes were constructed from annual balance sheets. The date and reason for closure were recorded if the firrm ceased activity. Findings included major differences between types of firm; for example, cooperatives had greatly increased hazards for winding-up (HR of 2.44 and 2.61 in the two approaches) but greatly reduced hazards for closure (0.48 and 0.45) compared to publicly traded companies. All-causes analysis averaged these strong effects into an insignicant one (1.05). Coefficients from the proportional odds model were similar to those from the Fine-Gray model, but have the advantage of interpretability.
机译:我们在2008年至2013年期间审视了意大利翁布里亚的小型企业的时间,以及影响它的因素。早期分析,使用Cox回归,考虑从任何原因中考虑失败(关闭)。但是,不活动的原因不同:自愿卷绕(我们的数据中的15184家公司的1808年,占3049个失败的59.3%);破产(236,7.7%);没有债权人或法院的行为关闭,并关闭(1005,33.0%)。虽然早期的分析提供了有价值的整体画面,但除了单独的原因,它们的发生率以及分别影响它们的因素也很有意思。我们使用竞争风险分析,采用在文献中突出的回归方法,基于原因特定和分布危险功能(细灰色模型)。此外,比例的赔率模型用于估计失败的累积发生率。数据包括公司的基础,地点,法律形式和活动部门。金融指数由年度资产负债表构建。如果FiRRM停止活动,则记录关闭的日期和原因。调查结果包括企业类型之间的主要差异;例如,合作社大大增加了卷绕的危险(两种方法中的2.44和2.61),但与公开交易公司相比,对关闭(0.48和0.45)的危害大大降低了。全部导致分析将这些强烈效应平均为惰性化物(1.05)。来自比例赔率模型的系数与来自细灰色模型的系数类似,但具有解释性的优点。

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