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Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences?

机译:植物物种的特质预测物种分布模型寻找新出现的功效吗?

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Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to test ecological theory and to direct targeted surveys for species of conservation concern. Several studies have tested for an influence of species traits on the predictive accuracy of SDMs. However, most used the same set of environmental predictors for all species and/or did not use truly independent data to test SDM accuracy. We built eight SDMs for each of 24 plant species of conservation concern, varying the environmental predictors included in each SDM version. We then measured the accuracy of each SDM using independent presence and absence data to calculate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true positive rate (TPR). We used generalized linear mixed models to test for a relationship between species traits and SDM accuracy, while accounting for variation in SDM performance that might be introduced by different predictor sets. All traits affected one or both SDM accuracy measures. Species with lighter seeds, animal‐dispersed seeds, and a higher density of occurrences had higher AUC and TPR than other species, all else being equal. Long‐lived woody species had higher AUC than herbaceous species, but lower TPR. These results support the hypothesis that the strength of species–environment correlations is affected by characteristics of species or their geographic distributions. However, because each species has multiple traits, and because AUC and TPR can be affected differently, there is no straightforward way to determine a priori which species will yield useful SDMs based on their traits. Most species yielded at least one useful SDM. Therefore, it is worthwhile to build and test SDMs for the purpose of finding new populations of plant species of conservation concern, regardless of these species’ traits.
机译:物种分配模型(SDMS)用于测试生态理论,并为保护问题的物种直接进行针对性调查。几项研究已经测试了物种特征对SDMS预测准确性的影响。然而,最多使用的所有物种的相同环境预测因子和/或不使用真正独立的数据来测试SDM精度。我们为24种植物保护人员的每种保护令建造了八种SDM,改变了每个SDM版本中包含的环境预测因子。然后,我们使用独立存在和缺席数据测量每个SDM的精度,以计算接收器操作特性曲线(AUC)和真正的阳性率(TPR)下的区域。我们使用了广义的线性混合模型来测试物种特征和SDM精度之间的关系,同时考虑了不同预测器集可以引入的SDM性能的变化。所有特征均影响了一个或两个SDM精度措施。具有较轻的种子,动物分散的种子和更高的出现密度的物种具有比其他物种更高的AUC和TPR,其他一切都是平等的。长期的木质物种比草本植物更高,但较低的TPR。这些结果支持了物种环境相关性的假设受物种特征或其地理分布的影响。然而,因为每个物种具有多种特征,并且因为AUC和TPR可能会受到不同的影响,因此没有直接的方式来确定基于其特征的物种将产生有用的SDMS的先验。大多数物种至少产生了一种有用的SDM。因此,无论这些物种的特征如何,都要建立和测试SDMS,以寻找新的植物植物物种的新群体。

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