Aim Coffee is an important export for many developing countries, with a global annual trade value of $100 billion, but it is threatened by a warming climate. Shade trees may mitigate the effects of climate change through temperature regulation that can aid in coffee growth, slow pest reproduction, and sustain avian insectivore diversity. The impact of shade on bird diversity and microclimate on coffee farms has been studied extensively in the Neotropics, but there is a dearth of research in the Paleotropics. Location East Africa. Methods We created current and future regional Maxent models for avian insectivores in East Africa using Worldclim temperature data and observations from the Global Biodiversity Information Database. We then adjusted current and future bioclimatic layers based on mean differences in temperature between shade and sun coffee farms and projected the models using these adjusted layers to predict the impact of shade tree removal on climatic suitability for avian insectivores. Results Existing Worldclim temperature layers more closely matched temperatures under shade trees than temperatures in the open. Removal of shade trees, through warmer temperatures alone, would result in reduction of avian insectivore species by over 25%, a loss equivalent to 50?years of climate change under the most optimistic emissions scenario. Under the most extreme climate scenario and removal of shade trees, insectivore richness is projected to decline from a mean of 38 to fewer than 8 avian insectivore species. Main conclusions We found that shade trees on coffee farms already provide important cooler microclimates for avian insectivores. Future temperatures will become a regionally limiting factor for bird distribution in East Africa, which could negatively impact control of coffee pests, but the effect of climate change can be potentially mediated through planting and maintaining shade trees on coffee farms.
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