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首页> 外文期刊>Ecology and Evolution >Using a structured decision analysis to evaluate bald eagle vital signs monitoring in Southwest Alaska National Parks
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Using a structured decision analysis to evaluate bald eagle vital signs monitoring in Southwest Alaska National Parks

机译:使用结构化决策分析来评估阿拉斯加西南部国家公园的秃头鹰生命体征监测

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Monitoring programs can benefit from an adaptive monitoring approach, where key decisions about why, where, what, and how to monitor are revisited periodically in order to ensure programmatic relevancy. The National Park Service (NPS) monitors status and trends of vital signs to evaluate compliance with the NPS mission. Although abundant, The Southwest Alaska Network (SWAN) monitors bald eagles because of their inherent importance to park visitors and role as an important ecological indicator. Our goal is to identify an optimal monitoring program that may be standardized among participating parks. We gathered an expert panel of scientists and managers, and implemented a Delphi Process to gather information about the bald eagle monitoring program. Panelists generated a list of means objectives for the monitoring program: minimizing cost, minimizing effort, maximizing the ability to detect change in bald eagle populations, and maximizing the amount of accurate information collected about bald eagles. We used a swing‐weighting technique to assign importance to each objective. Collecting accurate information about bald eagles was considered the most important means objective. Combining panelist‐generated information with objective importance, we analyzed the scenarios and defined the optimal decision using linear value modeling. Through our analysis, we found that a “Comprehensive” monitoring scenario, comprised of all feasible monitoring metrics, is the optimal monitoring scenario. Even with greatly increased cost, the Comprehensive monitoring scenario remains the best solution. We suggest further exploration of the cost and effort required for the Comprehensive scenario, to determine whether it is in the parks’ best interest to begin monitoring additional metrics.
机译:监控程序可以从自适应监视方法中受益,其中关键决策为什么,在何处,何种方式以及如何定期重新审视,以确保程序相关性。国家公园服务(NPS)监控重要迹象的地位和趋势,以评估遵守NPS任务。虽然丰富,西南阿拉斯加网络(天鹅)监测秃头老鹰,因为他们认为游客和角色是一个重要的生态指标。我们的目标是确定可能在参与公园之间标准化的最佳监测计划。我们聚集了一个科学家和管理者的专家小组,并实施了一个Delphi进程,以收集有关Bald Eagle Monitoring计划的信息。小组成员生成了监控程序的指目标的列表:最大限度地减少成本,最大限度地减少努力,最大限度地提高了检测秃鹰群体的变化的能力,并最大化了关于秃鹰收集的准确信息量。我们使用挥杆加权技术为每个目标分配重要性。收集有关秃鹰老鹰的准确信息被认为是最重要的手段目标。将小组企业生成的信息与客观重要性结合,我们分析了方案并使用线性值建模定义了最佳决策。通过我们的分析,我们发现,由所有可行的监测指标组成的“全面”监控方案是最佳的监控方案。即使大大增加成本,综合监控方案也仍然是最佳解决方案。我们建议进一步探索全面方案所需的成本和努力,以确定它是否在公园最佳利益中,以便开始监测额外的指标。

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