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Forecast Skill of Minimum and Maximum Temperatures on Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Timescales Over South Africa

机译:在南非季期期 - 季节性时间纪谬的最小和最大温度的预测技术

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Forecast skill of three subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models and their ensemble mean outputs are evaluated in predicting the surface minimum and maximum temperatures at subseasonal timescales over South Africa. Three skill scores (correlation of anomaly, root‐mean‐square error, and Taylor diagrams) are used to evaluate the models. It is established that the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models considered here have skill in predicting both minimum and maximum temperatures at subseasonal timescales. The correlation of anomaly indicates that the multimodel ensemble outperforms the individual models in predicting both minimum and maximum temperatures for the day 1–14, day 11–30, and full calendar month timescales during December months. The Taylor diagrams suggest that the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model and MM performs better for the day 11–30 timescale for both minimum and maximum temperatures. In general, the models perform better for minimum than maximum temperatures in terms of root‐mean‐square error. In fact, the skill difference in terms of correlation of anomalies (CORA) is small. Plain Language Summary This study evaluates the forecast skill of three subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models (European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, Centre National de Recherche Meteorologues, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office) in predicting minimum and maximum temperatures during December months at subseasonal timescales over South Africa. All three models have skill to a certain extent in predicting the day 1–14, day 11–30, and the full calendar month for both minimum and maximum temperatures.
机译:预测三种季节性模型及其集合均值产出的技能在预测南非季期期间的地表最小和最大温度下进行评估。三种技能评分(异常的相关性,根均方误差和泰勒图)用于评估模型。正建立,这里考虑的季期期到季节性模型具有预测最大和最大温度的技巧,以趋离时间为期。异常的相关性表明,多模型集合在12月期间预测第1-14天,第11-30天和全日历月时间尺度的最小和最大温度的各个模型。泰勒图表明,欧洲中距离预测模型和MM的欧洲中心为最小和最大温度的第11-30天少次表现更好。通常,在根均方误差方面,模型比最大温度更高。事实上,异常(Cora)相关性的技能差异很小。普通语言摘要本研究评估了三种季节性到季节性模型的预测技能(欧洲中距离预测,中心国家de Recherche Moteorologues和英国气象办公室)预测在12月12日期的最低和最大温度下在潜水期南非的时间尺度。所有三种型号在一定程度上具有一定程度的技能,以预测最小和最大温度的第1-14天,第11-30天和全日历月。

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