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Homogenizing GPS Integrated Water Vapor Time Series: Benchmarking Break Detection Methods on Synthetic Data Sets

机译:均匀化GPS集成水蒸气时间序列:合成数据集的打破检测方法

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We assess the performance of different break detection methods on three sets of benchmark data sets, each consisting of 120 daily time series of integrated water vapor differences. These differences are generated from the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at 120 sites worldwide, and the numerical weather prediction reanalysis (ERA‐Interim) integrated water vapor output, which serves as the reference series here. The benchmark includes homogeneous and inhomogeneous sections with added nonclimatic shifts (breaks) in the latter. Three different variants of the benchmark time series are produced, with increasing complexity, by adding autoregressive noise of the first order to the white noise model and the periodic behavior and consecutively by adding gaps and allowing nonclimatic trends. The purpose of this “complex experiment” is to examine the performance of break detection methods in a more realistic case when the reference series are not homogeneous. We evaluate the performance of break detection methods with skill scores, centered root mean square errors (CRMSE), and trend differences relative to the trends of the homogeneous series. We found that most methods underestimate the number of breaks and have a significant number of false detections. Despite this, the degree of CRMSE reduction is significant (roughly between 40% and 80%) in the easy to moderate experiments, with the ratio of trend bias reduction is even exceeding the 90% of the raw data error. For the complex experiment, the improvement ranges between 15% and 35% with respect to the raw data, both in terms of RMSE and trend estimations.
机译:我们评估了在三组基准数据集中的不同断裂检测方法的性能,每个都是由120个日常时间序列组成的集成水蒸汽差异。这些差异由全球120个站点的全球定位系统(GPS)测量产生,并且数值天气预报(ERA临时)集成水蒸气输出,其用作这里的参考系列。该基准测试包括后者在后者中添加非纤维叶片(断裂)的均匀和不均匀部分。基准时间序列的三种不同的变体,通过增加一定顺序的自回归噪声和周期性行为来增加复杂性,并通过添加间隙并允许非克隆趋势来实现复杂性。这种“复杂实验”的目的是在参考系列不是均匀的情况下,检查在更现实的情况下破坏检测方法的性能。我们评估了具有技能评分的断裂检测方法的性能,以中心的根均方误差(CRMSE),以及相对于同工系列趋势的趋势差异。我们发现大多数方法低估了休息的次数并具有大量的错误检测。尽管如此,CRMSE降低程度在易于中等实验中的显着性(大约40%和80%),趋势偏差比率甚至超过了原始数据误差的90%。对于复杂的实验,在RMSE和趋势估算方面,改善在原始数据方面的15%至35%之间。

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