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Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016

机译:1781 - 2016年波兰近表面空气温度和第比利斯(格鲁吉亚)的近表面空气温度的时间变化,1881 - 2016年

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Analyses of near‐surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 have been carried out. We show that the centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect ΔT?=?(1.08?±?0.29)°C is observed in Poland and in Tbilisi for 1881–2016. A warming effect is larger in winter season (ΔT?=?~1.15°C) than in other seasons (average warming effect for these seasons ΔT?=?~0.95°C). We show that a centenary warming is mainly related to the change of solar activity (estimated by sunspot number [SSN] and total solar irradiance [TSI]), particularly, a time interval about ~70?years (1890–1960), when correlation coefficients between 11‐year smoothed SSN and T, and TSI and T are high, r?=?0.66?±?0.07 and r?=?0.73?±?0.07 for Poland and r?=?0.82?±?0.05 and r?=?0.90?±?0.05 for Tbilisi, respectively; in this period solar activity contributes decisively in the global warming. We show that a global warming effect equals zero based on the temperature T data in Poland for period 1781–1880, when human activities were relatively less than in 1881–2016. We recognize a few feeble ~20?±?3?years of disturbances in the temperature changes for period 1885–1980, most likely related with the fluctuations of solar magnetic cycles. We distinguish the fluctuations of ~7–8?years in Poland's T data, possibly connected with local effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
机译:已经进行了1881 - 2016年波兰近表面空气温度T的分析1881 - 2016年的波兰(Georgia)。我们表明,波兰和第比利斯在波兰和第比利斯的百分比变暖效果几乎是相同的特殊性。平均百聚体变暖效果ΔT?(1.08?±0.29)在波兰和第比利斯观察到1881-2016。冬季(ΔT?=〜1.15°C)的变暖效果比在其他季节(这些季节的平均变暖效果Δt≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤tΔt≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t≤t= 0.95°C)。我们表明,百年变暖主要与太阳能活动的变化(由Sunspot Number [SSN]估计和总太阳能辐照度)有关,特别是约70〜70?年(1890-1960)的时间间隔11年间平滑的SSN和T之间的系数,以及TSI和T都高,R?=?0.66?±0.07和R?=?0.73?±0.07为波兰和r?=?0.82?±0.05和R.第=?分别为第比利斯0.90?±0.05;在这个时期,太阳能活动在全球变暖中果断地贡献。我们表明,当人类活动相对较低时,全球变暖效果等于零的波兰温度T数据,当时人类活动相对较少于1881 - 2016年。我们认识到几个虚弱〜20?±3?多年的温度变化在1885-1980期间,最可能与太阳磁循环的波动有关。我们区分波兰的T数据的〜7-8的波动,可能与北大西洋振荡的局部效果相连。

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