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An Improved Cyclogenesis Potential and Storm Evolution Parameter for North Indian Ocean

机译:北印度洋改进的环比势和风暴演进参数

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Flawless subseasonal prediction of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution over the narrow basin of North Indian Ocean (NIO) demands accurate rendition of the crucial parameters that influence the development of cyclonic storms. While many genesis potential indices are used for climatological monitoring and prediction of cyclogenesis globally, their skill in subseasonal prediction of individual storm development, especially near coastlines are limited. Thus, an improved genesis potential parameter (IGPP) is introduced in this study which can capture both cyclogenesis and daily evolution of cyclonic systems over NIO. The IGPP is a revised version of Kotal‐Genesis Potential Parameter (KGPP) implemented by India Meteorological Department (IMD) for short‐range operational cyclogenesis prediction over NIO. Daily averaged ERA‐5 and ERA‐Interim data sets are used for analysis and comparison of selected cyclonic storms over NIO for the period 1989–2018. Results reveal that false alarms and overestimation of values present in KGPP are remarkably reduced by using IGPP for all the analyzed storms. Moreover, IGPP outperforms KGPP in distinguishing between developing and nondeveloping storms by accurately representing the storm genesis, evolution, rapid intensification and intensity variations. Thus IGPP can be implemented operationally for improving the real‐time prediction of cyclogenesis and storm evolution over NIO. Plain Language Summary Accurate representation of weather parameters that are crucial for the formation and development of tropical cyclones over a small basin like North Indian Ocean (NIO) is critical for biweekly storm predictions. Most studies utilize different cyclogenesis parameters in genesis potential indices to capture annual/interannual frequency of cyclone formations around the globe. While these parameters are successful in studying the average storm genesis and frequencies at longer time scales, forecasts in real‐time over a land‐locked and narrow basin such as NIO often fail to capture rapid storm development. This study introduces an improved parameter for capturing the genesis and daily evolution of individual storms thus modifying the presently used parameter by India Meteorological Department thus making it more suitable for NIO. Comparison of old and improved parameters using daily averaged reanalysis data sets reveal that new parameter is better than the older one with accurate representation of storm evolution and noticeable reduction in false storm signals present in the old parameter for all the storm cases analyzed here.
机译:对北印度洋(NIO)狭窄的盆地热带环比和演化的完美性沉积预测要求准确地勾选影响旋风风暴的发展的关键参数。虽然许多成因潜在指数用于全球气候监测和对环生成的气候监测和预测,但它们在各种风暴发育的地区预测的技能,特别是在海岸线上有限。因此,在该研究中介绍了改进的成因潜在参数(IGPP),其可以在NIO中捕获旋风系统的环形发生和每日演化。 IGPP是由印度气象部门(IMD)实施的Kotal-Genesis潜在参数(KGPP)的修订版,用于在NIO上进行短程操作环比预测。日常平均的ERA-5和ERA-临时数据集用于分析和比较NIO在1989 - 2018年期间的选定旋风风暴的比较。结果表明,通过使用IGPP进行所有分析的风暴,显着降低了kGPP中存在的误报和估计值。此外,IGPP优于KGPP,以通过准确代表风暴创世纪,演化,快速增强和强度变化来区分显影和非开发风暴。因此,IGPP可以在操作上实施,以改善NIO对循环生成和风暴演化的实时预测。普通语言概要准确表示对北印度洋(NIO)等小盆地的热带气旋的形成和开发至关重要,这对于双周风暴预测至关重要。大多数研究利用了Genesis潜在指标中的不同环比参数,以捕获全球旋风形成的年/际频率。虽然这些参数成功地研究了在较长时间尺度的平均风暴创世历和频率方面,但在陆地锁定和狭窄的盆地上实时预测,例如NIO通常无法捕获快速的风暴发育。本研究介绍了一种改进的参数,用于捕获各种风暴的成因和日常演化,从而修改印度气象部门的目前使用的参数,从而使其更适合NIO。使用每日平均再分析数据集的旧和改进参数的比较显示,新参数比旧的参数更好,具有精确表示在此处分析的所有风暴案例中的旧参数中存在的假风暴信号。

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