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Invariability of Arctic Top‐of‐Atmosphere Radiative Response to Surface Temperature Changes

机译:北极顶部大气层的不变性辐射响应表面温度变化

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Recent studies have used satellite data to estimate the response of top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes to surface temperature changes in the Arctic. The satellite‐observed radiative response is indicative of Arctic climate sensitivity that determines future Arctic warming. However, it remains ambiguous whether the satellite‐observed radiative response is invariable because the time period covered by satellite data reflects a rapidly changing transient Arctic climate state with considerable sea ice loss. Using NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) observations from 2000 to 2018, this study evaluates the invariability of the radiative response by comparing the radiative response of the high sea ice concentration (SIC) period to that of the low SIC period. The results show that the net radiative response remains approximately unchanged regardless of the SIC (?0.19?±?0.44 and 0.15?±?0.16?W?m?2?K?1 for high and low SIC periods, respectively). In addition, seven of the 11 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) demonstrated that the modeled radiative responses are stable. The ERA‐interim reanalysis estimates show that regionally confined changes in individual radiative feedbacks such as albedo, lapse rate, water vapor, and clouds do not vary considerably. Consequently, we infer that the radiative response in the Arctic may remain stable even under rapid Arctic climate change. Hence, the Arctic climate sensitivity can be quantified with present satellite observations.
机译:最近的研究使用卫星数据来估计大气层(TOA)辐射助焊剂在北极地表面温度变化的响应。卫星观察到的辐射反应表示北极气候敏感度,这些气候敏感度决定了未来的北极变暖。然而,由于卫星数据所涵盖的时间段反映了具有相当大的海冰损失的时间段,卫星观察到的辐射响应是不变的,仍然存在暧昧。使用美国宇航局的云和地球辐射能量系统(CERES)观测从2000年至2018年开始,本研究通过比较高海冰浓度(SiC)期间与低SiC时段的辐射响应来评估辐射响应的不变性。结果表明,无论SiC(何0.19°±0.44和0.15≤0.44和0.15≤0.44和0.15≤0.16Ω,净辐射响应仍保持不变。此外,来自耦合型号的11个型号中的七个来自耦合模型离心项目阶段6(CMIP6)的型号表明,建模的辐射响应是稳定的。 ERA-临时再分析估计表明,各个辐射反馈的区域狭窄的变化,例如Albedo,流逝速率,水蒸气和云层的变化不会显着变化。因此,我们推出即使在快速北极气候变化下,北极的辐射反应也可能保持稳定。因此,北极气候敏感性可以通过目前的卫星观察来量化。

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