Evaluating the Dust Storm Probability in Isidis‐Elysium Planitia, a Tentative Landing Area of China's First Mars Mission (Tianwen‐1)

摘要

China's first Mars exploration mission (Tianwen‐1), launched on July 23, 2020 with the goal of “orbiting, landing, and roving,” and its tentative landing areas (TLAs) are Chryse Planitia (TLA 1) and Isidis‐Elysium Planitia (TLA 2). Dust storm is a typical activity on Mars; it has strong interaction with atmospheric circulation and will influence the visibility of the Martian surface. To ensure the safety and accuracy for landing, it is meaningful to analyze the probability of dust storm activity during Entry‐Descent‐Landing (EDL) season in TLAs. First, based on Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and Mars Color Imager (MARCI) Daily Global Maps (MDGMs) from Mars Years 24–31, we identified 882 dust storms within the 2,000?km radius monitor circle of TLA 2 (short for TLA 2‐C). Second, the average daily probability of dust storm activity (Adp_ds) in TLA 2‐C was calculated, with a range of 0% to 14.13% showing obvious seasonality and discontinuity. Third, we divided TLA 2‐C into 0.5° longitude × 0.5° latitude square grids and calculated their spatial probability of dust storm activity. The spatial probability of dust storm in TLA 2‐C ranged from 0% to 11.87% and generally reduced from north to south. Finally, according to the temporal and spatial dust storm probability in TLA 2 during EDL season, we suggested the optimal landing time of China's Tianwen‐1 mission was in Ls?=?20–41° and selected five preferred landing areas with the spatial probability of dust storm 3% for this mission. Plain Language Summary The first China's Mars exploration mission (Tianwen‐1), will achieve the targets of “orbiting, landing, and roving.” There are two tentative landing areas (TLAs) in the latitude range of 5–30°, Chryse Planitia (TLA 1) and Isidis‐Elysium Planitia (TLA 2). TLA 2 is on the south of Utopia which is an important origination area of dust storm sequences in the northern hemisphere. The probability of dust storm activity is an important criterion of atmospheric risk assessment for a Martian surface mission. Thus, it is crucial to evaluate the probabilities and characteristics of dust storm activity in and around TLA 2. In this paper, we used Mars Daily Global Maps (MDGMs) of Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and Mars Color Imager (MARCI) to (1) identify and catalog the dust storms in and around TLA 2; (2) calculate and analyze the temporal and spatial probability of dust storms in and around TLA 2; and (3) select the preferred landing time and areas for Tianwen‐1 mission based on the temporal and spatial probability of dust storm activity in TLA 2.