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Deep Learning Based Electricity Demand Forecasting in Different Domains

机译:基于深度学习的不同领域的电力需求预测

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摘要

Electricity demand forecasting is an important task in power grids. Most of researches on electrical load forecasting have been done in the time domain. But, the electrical time series has a non-stationary inherence that makes hard load prediction. Moreover, valuable information is hidden in the electrical load sequence which is not open in the time domain. To deal with these difficulties, a new electricity demand forecasting framework is proposed in this work. In the proposed framework, at first, a new feature space of electrical load sequence is composed. The provided domain involves complementary information about shape and variations of electrical load sequence. Then, the obtained load features are integrated with the original load values in time domain to allow a rich input for predictor. Finally, a powerful deep learning technique from the family of recurrent neural networks, named long-short term memory, is used to learn electricity demand from the provided features in single and hybrid domains. The following domains are investigated in this work: frequency, cepstrum, spectral centroid, spectral roll-off, spectral flux, energy, time difference, frequency difference, Gabor and collaborative representation. The experiments show that the use of time difference domain decreases the mean absolute percent error from 0.0332 to 0.0056.
机译:电力需求预测是电网的重要任务。大多数关于电负荷预测的研究已经在时域中完成。但是,电时间序列具有非静止的固有,使得硬负载预测。此外,有价值的信息隐藏在时域中未打开的电负载序列中。为了处理这些困难,在这项工作中提出了一项新的电力需求预测框架。在所提出的框架中,首先,组成了电负载序列的新特征空间。提供的域涉及关于电负载序列的形状和变化的互补信息。然后,所获得的负载特征与时域中的原始负载值集成,以允许丰富的预测器输入。最后,使用来自短期短期记忆的经常性神经网络系列的强大深度学习技术,用于从单一和混合域中的提供功能来学习电力需求。在这项工作中研究了以下域:频率,克斯特鲁姆,光谱质心,光谱滚动,光谱通量,能量,时差,频率差,牧师和协作表示。实验表明,使用时差结构域的使用降低了0.0332至0.0056的平均绝对百分比。

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