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Spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of malaria cases in Zimbabwe

机译:津巴布韦疟疾病例的空间和时空分析

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Although effective treatment for malaria is now available, approximately half of the global population remain at risk of the disease particularly in developing countries. To design effective malaria control strategies there is need to understand the pattern of malaria heterogeneity in an area. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to explore the spatial and spatio-temporal pattern of malaria cases in Zimbabwe based on malaria data aggregated at district level from 2011 to 2016. Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial scan statistic were applied on passive malaria data collected from health facilities and aggregated at district level to detect existence of spatial clusters. The global Moran’s I test was used to infer the presence of spatial autocorrelation while the purely spatial retrospective analyses were performed to detect the spatial clusters of malaria cases with high rates based on the discrete Poisson model. Furthermore, space-time clusters with high rates were detected through the retrospective space-time analysis based on the discrete Poisson model. Results showed that there is significant positive spatial autocorrelation in malaria cases in the study area. In addition, malaria exhibits spatial heterogeneity as evidenced by the existence of statistically significant (P??0.05) spatial and space-time clusters of malaria in specific geographic regions. The detected primary clusters persisted in the eastern region of the study area over the six year study period while the temporal pattern of malaria reflected the seasonality of the disease where clusters were detected within particular months of the year. Geographic regions characterised by clusters of high rates were identified as malaria high risk areas. The results of this study could be useful in prioritizing resource allocation in high-risk areas for malaria control and elimination particularly in resource limited settings such as Zimbabwe. The results of this study are also useful to guide further investigation into the possible determinants of persistence of high clusters of malaria cases in particular geographic regions which is useful in reducing malaria burden in such areas.
机译:虽然现在可用的疟疾有效治疗,但大约一半的全球人口仍然有疾病的风险,特别是在发展中国家。设计有效的疟疾控制策略需要了解一个地区的疟疾异质性模式。因此,本研究的主要目的是探讨津巴布韦在2011年至2016年在地区级别汇总的疟疾数据中疟疾患者的空间和时空模式。地理信息系统(GIS)和空间扫描统计在被动上应用从卫生设施收集的疟疾数据,并在地区级汇总以检测存在空间群的存在。全球莫兰的I试验用于推断出现空间自相关的存在,而进行纯粹的空间回顾性分析以检测基于离散泊松模型的高速率的疟疾病例的空间簇。此外,通过基于离散泊松模型的回顾空间时间分析来检测具有高速率的时空簇。结果表明,研究区疟疾病例中存在显着的积极空间自相关。此外,疟疾表现出空间异质性,如特定地理区域的统计显着性(P?0.05)疟疾的空间和时空簇的存在。在六年的研究期间,检测到的初级集群在研究区域的东部地区持续存在,而疟疾的时间模式反映了在一年中特定月份检测到群集的疾病的季节性。以高利率集群为特征的地理区域被确定为疟疾高风险区域。本研究的结果可用于优先考虑高风险区域的资源分配,以疟疾控制和消除特别是在津巴布韦等资源有限的环境中。该研究的结果也有助于引导进一步调查特定地理区域的疟疾病例高簇的可能决定因素,这对于减少这些地区的疟疾负担是有助于减少疟疾负担。

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