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Atmospheric changes caused by galactic cosmic rays over the period 1960–2010

机译:1960-2010期间银河宇宙射线引起的大气变化

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The Specified Dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and the Goddard Space Flight Center two-dimensional (GSFC 2-D) models are used to investigate the effect of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on the atmosphere over the 1960–2010 time period. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) computation of the GCR-caused ionization rates are used in these simulations. GCR-caused maximum NOx increases of 4–15?% are computed in the Southern polar troposphere with associated ozone increases of 1–2?%. NOx increases of ?~?1–6?% are calculated for the lower stratosphere with associated ozone decreases of 0.2–1?%. The primary impact of GCRs on ozone was due to their production of NOx. The impact of GCRs varies with the atmospheric chlorine loading, sulfate aerosol loading, and solar cycle variation. Because of the interference between the NOx and ClOx ozone loss cycles (e.g., the ClO + NO2+?M??→??ClONO2+?M reaction) and the change in the importance of ClOx in the ozone budget, GCRs cause larger atmospheric impacts with less chlorine loading. GCRs also cause larger atmospheric impacts with less sulfate aerosol loading and for years closer to solar minimum. GCR-caused decreases of annual average global total ozone (AAGTO) were computed to be 0.2?% or less with GCR-caused column ozone increases between 1000 and 100?hPa of 0.08?% or less and GCR-caused column ozone decreases between 100 and 1?hPa of 0.23?% or less. Although these computed ozone impacts are small, GCRs provide a natural influence on ozone and need to be quantified over long time periods. This result serves as a lower limit because of the use of the ionization model NAIRAS/HZETRN which underestimates the ion production by neglecting electromagnetic and muon branches of the cosmic ray induced cascade. This will be corrected in future works.
机译:整个大气社区气候模型(SD-WACCM)和戈达德航天飞行中心二维(GSFC 2-D)模型的指定动态版用于调查银河系宇宙射线(GCRS)对大气层的影响1960-2010时间段。在这些模拟中使用了用于航空安全性(Nairas)的大气电离辐射的自然电离辐射,从而在这些模拟中使用GCR导致电离率。 GCR导致的最大NOx增加4-15°的增加在南极对流层中计算,相关臭氧增加1-2?%。 NOx增加的?〜1-6〜6?%用于较低的平流层,相关臭氧降低0.2-1≤%。 GCR对臭氧的主要影响是由于它们的NOx的产生。 GCR的影响随着大气氯载荷,硫酸盐气溶胶载荷和太阳循环变异而变化。由于NOx和CLOX臭氧损失循环之间的干扰(例如,CLO + NO2 +ΔM≤1-克隆2 +?M?反应)以及克罗因预算中的克罗因的重要性,GCR导致较大的大气影响少量氯载荷。 GCR也会导致较少硫酸盐的气溶胶载荷和较近太阳能最小值的大气影响较大。 GCR引起的每年平均全球臭氧(AAGTO)的降低计算为0.2〜%或更低,GCR引起的柱臭氧在1000和100的增加0.08?%以下的HPA和GCR引起的柱臭氧在100之间减少1?HPA 0.23?%或更低。虽然这些计算的臭氧影响很小,但GCR对臭氧提供自然影响,并且需要在很长的时间内量化。由于使用电离模型Nairas / Hzetrn,因此该结果用作下限,这通过忽略宇宙射线诱导级联的电磁和μ子分支而低估离子产生。这将在未来的作品中得到纠正。

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