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Variations of China's emission estimates: response to uncertainties in energy statistics

机译:中国排放估计的变化:对能源统计中不确定性的反应

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The accuracy of China's energy statistics is of great concern because it contributes greatly to the uncertainties in estimates of global emissions. This study attempts to improve the understanding of uncertainties in China's energy statistics and evaluate their impacts on China's emissions during the period of 1990–2013. We employed the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) model to calculate China's emissions based on different official data sets of energy statistics using the same emission factors. We found that the apparent uncertainties (maximum discrepancy) in China's energy consumption increased from 2004 to 2012, reaching a maximum of 646?Mtce (million tons of coal equivalent) in 2011 and that coal dominated these uncertainties. The discrepancies between the national and provincial energy statistics were reduced after the three economic censuses conducted during this period, and converging uncertainties were found in 2013. The emissions calculated from the provincial energy statistics are generally higher than those calculated from the national energy statistics, and the apparent uncertainty ratio (the ratio of the maximum discrepancy to the mean value) owing to energy uncertainties in 2012 took values of 30.0, 16.4, 7.7, 9.2 and 15.6?%, for SO2, NOx, VOC, PM2.5 and CO2 emissions, respectively. SO2 emissions are most sensitive to energy uncertainties because of the high contributions from industrial coal combustion. The calculated emission trends are also greatly affected by energy uncertainties – from 1996 to 2012, CO2 and NOx emissions, respectively, increased by 191 and 197?% according to the provincial energy statistics but by only 145 and 139?% as determined from the original national energy statistics. The energy-induced emission uncertainties for some species such as SO2 and NOx are comparable to total uncertainties of emissions as estimated by previous studies, indicating variations in energy consumption could be an important source of China's emission uncertainties.
机译:中国能源统计的准确性很大,因为它对全球排放估计的不确定性有很大贡献。本研究试图改善对中国能源统计的不确定性的理解,并评估其在1990 - 2013年期间对中国排放的影响。我们雇用了中国(MEIC)模型的多分辨率排放库存,以使用相同排放因子的不同官方数据集的能源统计数据计算中国的排放。我们发现,2011年中国能源消耗中的明显不确定性(最大差异)从2004年到2012年增加了646人?MTCE(煤炭当量),煤炭占据了这些不确定性。在此期间进行的三项经济审计中,在本期进行的三项经济普查和2013年发现融合不确定性后,国家和省级能源统计数据之间的差异减少。从省能统计量计算的排放量通常高于国家能源统计数据计算的减排由于2012年的能量不确定性,所以明显的不确定性比(最大差异与平均值的比率)为SO2,NOx,VOC,PM2.5和CO2排放量为30.0,16.4,.7,9.2和15.6?% , 分别。由于工业煤燃烧的高贡献,SO2排放对能量不确定性最敏感。计算出的排放趋势也受到能源不确定性的大大影响 - 从1996年到2012年,二氧化碳和NOx排放量分别增加到191年和197年的排放量,根据省能源统计,只有145%和139?%国家能源统计。某些物种如SO2和NOx的能量诱导的排放不确定性与以往研究估计的排放的总不确定性相当,表明能源消耗的变化可能是中国排放不确定性的重要来源。

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