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Impacts of aviation fuel sulfur content on climate and human health

机译:航空燃料硫含量对气候和人体健康影响的影响

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Aviation emissions impact both air quality and climate. Using a coupled tropospheric chemistry-aerosol microphysics model we investigate the effects of varying aviation fuel sulfur content (FSC) on premature mortality from long-term exposure to aviation-sourced PM2.5 (particulate matter with a dry diameter of ???2.5?μm) and on the global radiation budget due to changes in aerosol and tropospheric ozone. We estimate that present-day non-CO2 aviation emissions with a typical FSC of 600?ppm result in ?~??3600 [95?% CI: 1310–5890] annual premature mortalities globally due to increases in cases of cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer, resulting from increased surface PM2.5 concentrations. We quantify the global annual mean combined radiative effect (REcomb) of non-CO2 aviation emissions as ?13.3?mW?m?2; from increases in aerosols (direct radiative effect and cloud albedo effect) and tropospheric ozone. Ultra-low sulfur jet fuel (ULSJ; FSC??=??15?ppm) has been proposed as an option to reduce the adverse health impacts of aviation-induced PM2.5. We calculate that swapping the global aviation fleet to ULSJ fuel would reduce the global aviation-induced mortality rate by ?~??620 [95?% CI: 230–1020]?mortalities?a?1 and increase REcomb by +7.0?mW?m?2. We explore the impact of varying aviation FSC between 0 and 6000?ppm. Increasing FSC increases aviation-induced mortality, while enhancing climate cooling through increasing the aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE). We explore the relationship between the injection altitude of aviation emissions and the resulting climate and air quality impacts. Compared to the standard aviation emissions distribution, releasing aviation emissions at the ground increases global aviation-induced mortality and produces a net warming effect, primarily through a reduced CAE. Aviation emissions injected at the surface are 5 times less effective at forming cloud condensation nuclei, reducing the aviation-induced CAE by a factor of 10. Applying high FSCs at aviation cruise altitudes combined with ULSJ fuel at lower altitudes results in reduced aviation-induced mortality and increased negative RE compared to the baseline aviation scenario.
机译:航空排放影响空气质量和气候。使用耦合的对流层化学 - 气溶胶微生物模型我们研究了不同航空燃料硫含量(FSC)对航空暴露于航空源PM2.5的过早死亡率的影响(具有干燥直径的颗粒物质为2.5? μm)和由于气溶胶和对流层臭氧的变化导致全球辐射预算。我们估计当今的非二氧化碳航空排放,典型的FSC为600?ppm导致?〜?? 3600 [95吗?%CI:1310-5890]由于心肺疾病和肺病例增加,全球早产大体癌症,由表面PM2.5浓度增加而导致。我们量化了非二氧化碳航空排放的全球年平均混合辐射效应(RECOMB)为13.3?MW?M?2;从气溶胶的增加(直接辐射效果和云反照效应)和对流层臭氧。已经提出了超低硫喷射燃料(ULSJ; FSC ?? =Δε≤PPM)作为减少航空诱导的PM2.5的不利健康影响的选择。我们计算将全球航空舰队交换到ULSJ燃料将减少全球航空诱导的死亡率率(620 [95吗?%CI:230-1020)?Mirtalities?1,并增加ReComm +7.0?MW ?M?2。我们探讨了不同航空FSC在0到6000之间的影响?PPM。增加FSC增加了航空诱导的死亡率,同时通过增加气溶胶云反玻璃效应(CAE)来增强气候冷却。我们探讨了航空排放的注射高度与由此产生的气候和空气质量影响之间的关系。与标准航空排放分布相比,释放地面的航空排放增加了全球航空诱导的死亡率,并主要通过减少的CAE产生净温暖效果。在表面上注射的航空排放是在形成云凝结核的情况下效率的5倍,将航空诱导的CAE减少10倍。在航空巡航中施加高FSCs与ULSJ燃料在较低海拔地区结合的导致航空诱导的死亡率降低与基线航空场景相比增加了负面RE。
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