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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions >The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model
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The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

机译:2009 - 2010年北极地流层冬季 - 一般演进,山波和运营天气预报模型的可预测性

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The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.
机译:相对温暖的2009-2010北极冬季是一个特殊的冬季,因为北大西洋振荡指数达到了持久的极端负值。在这里,展示了北极流层的选定方面,在今年冬天的启发中,通过分析国际田野实验协调。首先,作为一种参考,记录了其不同阶段的极性漩涡的演变。在由向上传播行星波引起的平流层紊乱序列之后,提出了特别强调在中间冬季形成的特殊寒冷涡旋。在2010年1月底发生的主要突然突然的平流层变暖(SSW)结束了异常的冷涡期。在2010年1月的寒冷时期,在寒冷期间,在北极的星期载遥感仪器经常观察波冰极性平流层云。在这里,更详细地分析了在格陵兰观察到的这种情况,并试图与运营的流动信息相关山波诱导温度波动幅度的数值天气预报模型。最后,结果表明,主要SSW的发作的ECMWF集合预测系统的预测非常娴熟,并且集合传播非常小。然而,在主要SSW之后,集合差异显着增加,显示了SSW事件中涉及的强烈的非线性和内部变异性。

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