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The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

机译:模型空间分辨率对欧洲模拟臭氧和细颗粒物质的影响:健康影响评估的影响

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We examine the impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated concentrations of surface ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5μm in diameter (PM2.5), and the associated health impacts over Europe, using the HadGEM3–UKCA chemistry–climate model to simulate pollutant concentrations at a coarse (~140km) and a finer (~50km) resolution. The attributable fraction (AF) of total mortality due to long-term exposure to warm season daily maximum 8h running mean (MDA8) O3 and annual-average PM2.5 concentrations is then calculated for each European country using pollutant concentrations simulated at each resolution. Our results highlight a seasonal variation in simulated O3 and PM2.5 differences between the two model resolutions in Europe. Compared to the finer resolution results, simulated European O3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are higher on average in winter and spring (~10 and ~6%, respectively). In contrast, simulated O3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are lower in summer and autumn (~?1 and ~?4%, respectively). These differences may be partly explained by differences in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations simulated at the two resolutions. Compared to O3, we find the opposite seasonality in simulated PM2.5 differences between the two resolutions. In winter and spring, simulated PM2.5 concentrations are lower at the coarse compared to the finer resolution (~?8 and ~?6%, respectively) but higher in summer and autumn (~29 and ~8%, respectively). Simulated PM2.5 values are also mostly related to differences in convective rainfall between the two resolutions for all seasons. These differences between the two resolutions exhibit clear spatial patterns for both pollutants that vary by season, and exert a strong influence on country to country variations in estimated AF for the two resolutions. Warm season MDA8 O3 levels are higher in most of southern Europe, but lower in areas of northern and eastern Europe when simulated at the coarse resolution compared to the finer resolution. Annual-average PM2.5 concentrations are higher across most of northern and eastern Europe but lower over parts of southwest Europe at the coarse compared to the finer resolution. Across Europe, differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted MDA8 O3 range between ?0.9 and +2.6% (largest positive differences in southern Europe), while differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 range from ?4.7 to +2.8% (largest positive differences in eastern Europe) of the total mortality. Therefore this study, with its unique focus on Europe, demonstrates that health impact assessments calculated using modelled pollutant concentrations, are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ~±5% of the total mortality across Europe.
机译:我们检查模型水平分辨率对直径(PM2.5)的模拟浓度的表面臭氧(O3)和颗粒物质的影响,以及使用HADGEM3-UKCA化学 - 气候模型对欧洲的相关健康影响在粗(约140km)和更细(〜50km)分辨率下模拟污染物浓度。随后使用在每个分辨率下模拟的污染物浓度计算,由于长期暴露于温暖季节的总死亡率,总死亡率的可归因分数(AF)每日最大8小时且每年平均PM2.5浓度。我们的结果突出了欧洲两种模型分辨率之间模拟O3和PM2.5差异的季节性变化。与更精细的分辨率结果相比,在冬季和弹簧(分别为10〜6%)的粗糙分辨率下模拟欧洲O3浓度较高。相比之下,夏季和秋季的粗糙分辨率下的模拟O3浓度(分别为〜1〜4%)。可以通过在两种分辨率模拟的氮二氧化氮(NO2)浓度的差异部分地解释这些差异。与O3相比,我们发现两项决议之间模拟PM2.5差异的相反季节性。与夏季分辨率相比,冬季和春季,模拟PM2.5浓度较低,但夏季和秋季分别更高,分别更高,分别为〜29〜8%)。模拟PM2.5值也大多数与所有季节两项决议之间的对流降雨差异有关。这两项决议之间的这些差异表现出季节变化的污染物的明显空间模式,并对国家对两项决议的估计AF中的国家变化产生强烈影响。温暖的季节MDA8 O3水平在南欧大部分较高,但在北部和东欧地区以粗糙分辨率模拟时,北欧地区较低。每年平均PM2.5浓度较高,北部和东欧大部分较高,但与粗糙的分辨率相比,粗糙的西南欧洲部分较低。在欧洲,AF的差异与长期暴露于人口加权MDA8 O3之间的差异?0.9和+ 2.6%(南欧的最大差异),而AF与长期暴露于人口的差异 - 加权年均平均PM2.5范围从?4.7至+ 2.8%(东欧最大的积极差异)的总死亡率。因此,本研究凭借其独特的欧洲专注,表明使用建模污染物浓度计算的健康影响评估对模型分辨率的变化敏感,欧洲全部死亡率的占总死亡率的模型分辨率。

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