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Net radiative forcing and air quality responses to regional CO emission reductions

机译:净辐射强制和空气质量应对区域CO排放减少

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摘要

Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions influence global and regional air quality and global climate change by affecting atmospheric oxidants and secondary species. We simulate the influence of halving anthropogenic CO emissions globally and individually from 10 regions on surface and tropospheric ozone, methane, and aerosol concentrations using a global chemical transport model (MOZART-4 for the year 2005). Net radiative forcing (RF) is then estimated using the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) standalone radiative transfer model. We estimate that halving global CO emissions decreases global annual average concentrations of surface ozone by 0.45 ppbv, tropospheric methane by 73 ppbv, and global annual net RF by 36.1 mW m?2, nearly equal to the sum of changes from the 10 regional reductions. Global annual net RF per unit change in emissions and the 100 yr global warming potential (GWP100) are estimated as ?0.124 mW m?2 (Tg CO)?1 and 1.34, respectively, for the global CO reduction, and ranging from ?0.115 to ?0.131 mW m?2 (Tg CO)?1 and 1.26 to 1.44 across 10 regions, with the greatest sensitivities for regions in the tropics. The net RF distributions show widespread cooling corresponding to the O3 and CH4 decreases, and localized positive and negative net RFs due to changes in aerosols. The strongest annual net RF impacts occur within the tropics (28° S–28° N) followed by the northern midlatitudes (28° N–60° N), independent of reduction region, while the greatest changes in surface CO and ozone concentrations occur within the reduction region. Some regional reductions strongly influence the air quality in other regions, such as East Asia, which has an impact on US surface ozone that is 93% of that from North America. Changes in the transport of CO and downwind ozone production clearly exceed the direct export of ozone from each reduction region. The small variation in CO GWPs among world regions suggests that future international climate agreements could adopt a globally uniform metric for CO with little error, or could use different GWPs for each continent. Doing so may increase the incentive to reduce CO through coordinated policies addressing climate and air quality.
机译:一氧化碳(CO)排放通过影响大气氧化剂和次生物种影响全球和区域空气质量和全球气候变化。我们使用全球化学传输模型(2005年的Mozart-4)模拟全球和单独从10个区域和流动性臭氧,甲烷和气溶胶浓度的10个区域的影响然后使用GFDL(地球物理性流体动力学实验室)独立辐射转移模型估计净辐射强制(RF)。我们估计减半全球CO排放将全球年平均水平浓度降低0.45ppbv,对流层甲烷,通过73 ppbv,全球年度净射频,全球年度净射频36.1 mw m?2,几乎等于10个区域减少的变化总和。每单位每单位净射频的排放变化和100年的全球变暖潜力(GWP100)分别估计为0.124 mw m?2(Tg Co)?1和1.34,用于全球CO减少,从?0.115在10个地区的10131 mw m?2(Tg co)?1和1.26至1.44,热带地区的最大敏感性。净RF分布显示,由于气溶胶的变化,对应于O3和CH4的广泛冷却,以及由于气溶胶的变化而降低,以及局部的正净射频。在热带地区(28°S-28°N)内发生最强的年度净射频影响,然后发生在北中间人(28°N-60°N),与减少区域无关,而表面CO和臭氧浓度的最大变化在减少区域内。一些区域减少强烈影响东亚等其他地区的空气质量,这对美国表面臭氧产生了影响,这是来自北美的93%。 CO和下风臭氧生产运输的变化明显超过了每个减少区域的臭氧的直接出口。世界地区之间的CO GWPS的小变异表明,未来的国际气候协定可以采用一点错误的全球统一度量标准,或者可以为每个大陆使用不同的GWP。这样做可能会通过解决气候和空气质量的协调政策来增加减少同事的激励。

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