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Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period?19902015

机译:气溶胶和臭氧辐射强迫的多模型模拟由于在期间的人为排放变化?19902015

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Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period?19902015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. ?1?to ?3?%?yr?1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 19902015?period increased by +0.17?±?0.08?W?m?2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC?AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
机译:在过去的几十年中,由于经济增长和空气污染法规,改变了大气能量平衡的物质排放的地理分布。在这里,我们展示了由七个全球大气组成模型的模拟模拟使用最近更新的发射数据的气溶胶和臭氧丰度的变化及其辐射强制。该模型基于观察到(例如,在美国和欧洲气溶胶中的气溶胶中的表面气溶胶和臭氧在表面气溶胶和臭氧的大规模变化通过臭氧和气溶胶的全局平均辐射强制迫使19902015?期间增加+0.17?±0.08≤0.08≤0≤0.08μm≤2,由于臭氧,大约三分之一。这种增加比IPCC在IPCC中报告的阳性更强烈。在此期间增加阳性辐射气溶胶的主要原因是全球平均SO2排放量的大幅减少,与IPCC分析中使用的新排放库存相比,新的排放库存更强,以及更高的黑碳排放。
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